FanPost

Ok, So After All This Where Do We Stand?

As we all know a bit too well, Tottenham are in the midst of an awful run of form. An epic collapse. We went from a 10 point lead over Arsenal to trailing them by 5 points. For those of you who aren't so good at math, that's a 15 point swing.

HOWEVER, somewhat miraculously, we are still in fourth place. There really is still time to catch and finish above our hated North London rivals. We still have by far the easiest schedule remaining compared to our opponents. Arsenal and Chelsea are still looking rather unconvincing themselves. Chelsea, without the benefit of about 3 terrible refereeing calls in their last few matches would be further behind...they aren't exactly setting the world alight. Arsenal just lost to QPR and then at home to Wigan yesterday. They are certainly not looking like a formidable team themselves at the moment.

Lets take a look at all the remaining fixtures that we have, and compare it to Arsenal, Chelsea, and Newcastle have to go through. Join me after the jump.

First of all, let me point out a few things:

1.) Remember in the 2009-2010 season when we were coming to the closing stages of the season and we had to play Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City in quick succession? Remember when everyone wrote us off? Remember when we ourselves really doubted we could get through that brutal run of fixtures and stay in contention for 4th place? Then remember that we won all three games?

2.) I'm done with saying that our remaining games are easy. I'm done writing off our opponents, no matter what position in the league table they are currently occupying. Our recent run of form dictates that we should be in the bottom half of the table, not the other way around. Freaking WIGAN just beat Manchester United and Arsenal back-to-back. We got our asses kicked in those exact same fixtures. Nothing we have done since February has given us any right to claim we are a good team. This is a matter of motivation and desire, and right now we just don't have it. That being said, with a clean slate let's see what has to go down:

Current Standings:

Team

Games Played

Points

Goal Differential

Arsenal

34

64

24

Tottenham

33

59

19

Newcastle

33

59

8

Chelsea

33

57

18

Arsenal's loss to Wigan yesterday was a massive boost. We now have a game in hand, while trailing by 5 points. Winning the game in hand puts us behind by only 2 points, with Arsenal still having to play Chelsea and Stoke. Which brings me to the best news yet:

*** Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle all still have to play each other in some capacity ***

Arsenal have to play Chelsea, and Chelsea also have to play Newcastle. That means guaranteed dropped points. draws in those matches would obviously be awesome, but if push comes to shove we've got to root against Chelsea my friends. I'd rather concede 3rd to Arsenal than possibly lose out of the top-4 all together by Arsenal losing to Chelsea.

Remaining Fixtures by Club:

Tottenham

QPR away is going to be difficult, but winnable. Fulham are a very tough team but their away record really is atrocious, thankfully we play them at White Hart Lane. Blackburn, Bolton and Villa are...pretty stinking awful. Frankly, if we don't pick up all 9 points in those fixtures we do not deserve to finish in the top 4. That's all there is to it.

Estimated Points Collected:

  • 13 (Draw v QPR, win remaining fixtures)
  • 12 (Lose v QPR, win remaining fixtures)
  • 10 (Lose v QPR, Draw v Fulham)
  • 9 (Lose v QPR, Lose v Fulham)

Arsenal

  • Chelsea (H)
  • Stoke (A)
  • Norwich (H)
  • West Brom (A)

Fingers crossed for a draw against Chelsea, but if one team is going to win, it's got to be Arsenal. Chelsea will also be coming off a mid-week game against Barcelona, and still have to worry about the 2nd leg. We all know Stoke away is an incredibly difficult fixture (especially if Chris Foy is reffing) but unless Arsenal completely shit the bed like we did against Norwich, I would have to think they will certainly win their final two matches.

Estimated Points Collected:

  • 7 (Draw v Chelsea, lose v Stoke)
  • 8 (Draw v Chelsea, draw v Stoke)
  • 9 (Win v Chelsea, lose v Stoke)
  • 10 (Win v Chelsea, draw v Stoke)
  • 12 (Win v Chelsea, Win v Stoke)

Newcastle

  • Stoke (H)
  • Wigan (A)
  • Chelsea (A)
  • Manchester City (H)
  • Everton (A)

Ouch. That is NOT an easy schedule. There is no way they come through that run unscathed. Wigan being the easiest potential fixture and they just beat Man United and Arsenal.

Estimated Points:

  • 8 (Two wins, one draw v Stoke, Wigan and Everton)
  • 9 (Wins v. Stoke, Wigan and Everton)
  • 10 (Wins v Stoke, Wigan and Everton, draw v one of Chelsea/City)
  • 12 (Wins v Stoke, Wigan and Everton. beat one of Chelsea/City)

Chelsea

  • Arsenal (A)
  • QPR (H)
  • Newcastle (H)
  • Liverpool (A)
  • Blackburn (H)

Again, not an easy schedule. As I mentioned, Arsenal will be a very tough game, especially when in the middle of a UCL tie vs. Barcelona. Newcastle will be difficult, as will Liverpool away. (I know overall they've been shit but they seem to always play the better teams tough.) Blackburn are rubbish.

Estimated Points:

  • 8 (Loss v. Arsenal, wins v. QPR and Blackburn, draws v. Newcastle and Liverpool)
  • 9 (Draw v. Arsenal, wins v. QPR and Blackburn, draws v. Newcastle and Liverpool)
  • 11 (Draw v. Arsenal, wins QPR and Blackburn, win one/draw one v. Newcastle and Liverpool)
  • 13 (Draw v. Arsenal, wins v QPR, Blackburn, Newcastle and Liverpool)

You'll notice, even if we lose one remaining game, we can still pick up 12 points. Based on our rival's schedules, I find it extremely unlikely that they can do the same. Let's take Arsenal out of the equation for the moment, and assume they take 3rd place. I think Chelsea and Newcastle would have to play out of their minds to pick up 12 points in their remaining fixtures, and if they do we still finish in 4th, because Chelsea are still two points behind us, and we have a healthy goal differential lead on Newcastle which essentially gives us an extra point. Add to that, that Newcastle's remaining games are even more difficult than Chelsea's, and we are actually looking alright.

Obviously I could sit here and try and guess what I think the 'most likely' points tally for each team will be all day, but there are still so many different possible outcomes that would be a shot in the dark. However, I think what this does do is show us that we are certainly still in a very good position and that's the entire point of this post. For all the doom and gloom of late, we are still in a better position than most of our rivals, especially Chelsea and Newcastle. They both have quite difficult fixtures remaining.

I'm usually the first person to shout that the sky is falling, and all is lost, and we are screwed. But I've done so much of that over the past few weeks, why not switch it up and really look at the schedules? And even if it's just a little bit, I see the sun starting to peek out of the clouds. We are in this Spurs fans...we can make it happen. COYS!

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