Premier League Projections and Power Rankings, Week 8: City Surge

Michael Regan

In a week where most things remained the same at the top of the table, a ridiculous performance by Manchester City sees the, um, what do we call City again, whatever that is, they're beginning to pull away.

Manchester City won convincingly away to West Ham United. That's not too surprising. But check this stat. In seven previous matches, West Ham had allowed only 13 shots on target from inside the box. City managed 10 in this match alone. It's been (iiiit's been!) my feeling all year that City are the one club in the Premier League with the talent to really run away with the league. So far obviously they aren't, but the projected table gets kinder and kinder to City every week.

Tottenham Hotspur were unable to do much at home to West Ham last week, but they took down a solid win this week. Three shots in the box on target, all from close or central positions, just one allowed. Three shots outside the box on target as well, again to just one for Aston Villa. I had projected a roughly 50% chance of Spurs dropping points in this match, so a solid win is a very nice outcome. I think some of the hand wringing after the game might have failed to take into account how difficult it is to play away against mid-table opposition. Arsenal, who have been pretty much amazing for two months, were held to a draw in a similar match away to West Bromwich Albion.

Let's take a look at the numbers.

Power Rankings and Projections

Do remember that because of rounding, not all the numbers necessarily add up quite right.

Club W D L Pts GD Team+ Top4% ΔT4 Rel% ΔRel Title% ΔTitle 5th
Manchester City 22 9 7 76 +38 151 83% +6 0% 0 34% +6 8%
Arsenal 21 9 8 72 +27 135 68% +4 0% 0 19% +2 11%
Chelsea 20 11 7 72 +29 137 67% -1 0% 0 18% -2 12%
Tottenham Hotspur 20 10 8 71 +23 138 60% +4 0% 0 13% +1 14%
Liverpool 20 10 8 69 +22 131 50% -2 0% 0 9% -2 15%
Manchester United 19 10 9 66 +21 135 35% -9 0% 0 4% -3 15%
Everton 18 11 9 65 +14 124 27% +0 0% 0 3% +0 13%
Southampton 15 12 11 57 +6 104 6% -1 0% -0.5 0.5% -0 5%
Swansea City 15 10 13 56 +8 111 5% +1 0.5% -0 0% 0 4%
Newcastle 12 10 16 46 -11 87 0.5% -0 5% -0 0% 0 0.5%
West Bromwich Albion 11 13 14 46 -5 87 0.5% -0 5% -1 0% 0 0.5%
Aston Villa 12 10 16 46 -7 85 0.5% -0 5% +1 0% 0 0.5%
Norwich City 11 10 17 42 -15 82 0% 0 15% +1 0% 0 0%
West Ham United 10 11 17 41 -10 80 0% 0 15% +4 0% 0 0%
Fulham 10 10 18 40 -16 76 0% 0 18% -13 0% 0 0%
Stoke City 9 12 17 40 -14 77 0% 0 22% -1 0% 0 0%
Cardiff City 9 11 18 37 -21 69 0% 0 32% -2 0% 0 0%
Hull City 9 11 18 37 -22 63 0% 0 33% +2 0% 0 0%
Sunderland 7 10 21 30 -31 70 0% 0 70% -3 0% 0 0%
Crystal Palace 7 8 23 28 -33 60 0% 0 80% -7 0% 0 0%

  • I'm not 100% sure why Chelsea dropped slightly after winning big home to Cardiff City. One issue here is the immense dimension of Manchester City's victory, and further Arsenal beat the snot out of Norwich with a SiBoT advantage of six to one. So even though Chelsea got a good win, they only had a four-three SiBoT advantage over the BlueRed BirdsDragons at home. With all four of the top teams in the table collecting three points, Chelsea's slightly shaky performance in the underlying stats leads to them losing a tiny bit in expectation.
  • The Eto'o-Hazard equalizer was bullshit anyway.
  • Manchester United, right? They were home to Southampton. Southampton are good of course, but this is, at least in theory, Old Trafford and all that. Southampton got the equalizer off a set piece late, but they had fought the Red Devils evenly through the match up to that point. 6 SiBoT / 1 SoBoT for United, 5/2 for the Saints. Each side had three close/central SiBoT. At some point, United need to start winning games and winning them by good margins. Right now, they're not playing any better than Swansea or Southampton.
  • Tip for advice giving. Try to pick the club that has a home match against Sunderland. Swansea City won easily. While this was not a complicated pick, I still think that the Swans have been playing excellent football (certainly by the underlying stats they have) and remain good bets to roll off a steak of wins in the next month or two.
  • Fulham are lucky. They have won three matches this season, and in those matches they have scored six goals from nine shots on target, seven from inside the box. While Martin Jol's job is probably safe for a little while, they still have the same problems they've had all season. I'm not buying in to this winning streak.
  • This is getting close to the end for Palace. They, well, they aren't good.

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