FanPost

Quarter-Pole Point Expectancy: How Many Points Can Spurs Realistically Get?

Ten games in, and Tottenham Hotspur are in the top four. While the results are where we expected to be (for the most part), the style leaves a lot to be desired. Fortunately (as Arsenal have proven year after year, the heartless bastards), all that matters is the scoreboard and not the way there.

My buddy (an Everton fan) and I discussed the point expectancy of each team grouping them into tiers: 6-pointers, 4-pointers, 3-pointers, and 1-pointers. More explanation of this later, but I'm sure you can deduce what this means. Obviously, some teams have had expectancy changed, so that will be addressed as well. I had planned on doing this at the start of the season, but school and marriage got in the way. I'll try to do it again around the midway point. Points dropped/added can be cross-referenced with the fantastic work MCofA is doing (NOTE: there is ZERO actual math involved with what I'm babbling about) to figure out if we're ahead of or behind pace. Without further ado...

CRYSTAL PALACE:

Before the season: 6 pointer (a team that we should beat home and away, no questions asked)

Now: 6 pointer

Analysis: Crystal Palace are bad. So bad, they willingly play Marouane Chamakh. They're getting relegated. Ian Holloway is getting sacked (but the press still loves him because he's funny and kooky, while AVB would be paraded as a dick because yay xenophobia).

SWANSEA CITY

Before the season: 4 pointer (a team that you'd home to beat at home and sneak out a draw on the road)

Now: 4 pointer

Analysis: Swansea are a good side that has had a rough go of it. They can score and defend capably, and Michael Laudrup is a good manager. Their schedule gets a little easier, so don't be surprised if they end up in the top half of the table comfortably.

ARSENAL

Before the season: 3 pointer (a team you'd hope to beat at home and know beating them on the road will be rough)

Now: 3 pointer

Analysis: Arsenal are punching so far above their weight it's not even funny. After Aston Villa snuck out of the library with 3 points, most Spurs fans were thinking that this would be the year to overtake their North London rivals. After a 1-0 victory for the scum, it seemed Wenger's ridiculous luck would not stop. Spurs should still beat them at the Lane, but it will never be easy.

NORWICH CITY

Before the season: 4 pointer

Now: 6 pointer

Analysis: Norwich have...struggled, to say the least. The team that was pesky last season and held Spurs to a pair of draws has turned big signings into a less than stellar attack force and a porous defense. One or two good results can turn things around, but don't be surprised to see them mired at the bottom of the table all season.

CARDIFF CITY

Before the season: 6 pointer

Now: 6 pointer

Analysis: Vincent Tan's Purple DragonBirds are much MUCH better than were given credit for coming in, mostly due to David Marshall Lev Yashin impressions and Craig Bellamy & Steven Caulker's leadership. The main reason we're still a 6 pointer is because of Paulinho's big goal and even bigger celebration.

CHELSEA

Before the season: 1 pointer (A team you hope to steal a draw at home from and that's about it)

Now: 1 pointer

Analysis: I still think Chelsea is the most talented team in the Premiership, recent results be damned. The home draw was a thrilling and disappointing result at the same time, but probably fair. After the dust settles, I expect CSKA London to be at or near the top.

WEST HAM

Before the season: 4 pointer

Now: 3 pointer

Analysis: Burn the film. This year's version of Wigan accounts for 60% of our goals allowed.

ASTON VILLA

Before the season: 4 pointer

Now: 6 pointer

Analysis: Aston Villa are two teams: with Christian Benteke and without Christian Benteke. If the former shows up at the lane, we could be in for a long day, but we should still beat them regardless.

HULL CITY

Before the season: 6 pointer

Now: 4 pointer

Analysis: Hull are playing Stoke-esque football, dragging two busses and a train behind the ball and hoping to pip a goal on a counter. Between the dodgy penalty and the PK shootout, I think most people believe that a draw at the KC would be lucky.

EVERTON

Before the season: 3 pointer

Now: 4 pointer

Analysis: The draw at Goodison Park was a fair result, but one that certainly could look like a point gained down the line. Despite losing Marouane Fellaini and David Moyes, Everton boast a great defense, and Romelu Lukaku is still the scariest man in the Prem for my money.

NEWCASTLE UNITED

Before the season: 4 pointer

Now: 4 pointer

Analysis: Talk about a Jekyll and Hyde team. The French Connection can either beat the best team in the league or lose to one of the worst. The talent is there; It's a matter of putting it all together, obviously.

MANCHESTER CITY

Before the season: 1 pointer

Now: 1 pointer

Analysis: Despite their road woes, beating Manchester City will always be a tough task. The other major title contender (aside from Chelsea) has the capabilities to beat you and show less than zero remorse about it.

MANCHESTER UNITED

Before the season: 3 pointer

Now: 4 pointer

Analysis: David Moyes has already proven that he's not Sir Alex Ferguson when it comes to luck. Despite one of the easier schedules in the league, they are a mid-table team at best. Unless they get a little lucky, the Europa League will most likely be the best they do.

FULHAM

Before the season: 4 pointer

Now: 6 pointer

Analysis: Fulham are bad. A couple wonder goals and Dimitar Berbatov can only cover this up so much. Martin Jol and his collection of former Spurs are lucky to not be in the relegation zone.

SUNDERLAND

Before the season: 4 pointer

Now: 6 pointer

Analysis: Ugh, poor Jozy.

LIVERPOOL

Before the season: 3 pointer

Now: 3 pointer

Analysis: Bitey McHorseface and Daniel Sturridge provide one of the better attacks in the league, and Simon Mignolet has sturdied up the space between the pipes. They're still not quite Champions League good, but they're much better than most people expected.

SOUTHAMPTON

Before the season: 4 pointer

Now: 3 pointer

Analysis: Sandro's face and Gareth Bale's left foot were the two most crucial body parts for Spurs last season against Saints, but It may take more than that. Southampton are the only team better defensively than Spurs, so don't be surprised if a pair of 0-0 draws are in the cards.

WEST BROMWICH ALBION

Before the season: 4 pointer

Now: 4 pointer

Analysis: West Brom a are pretty average team. They've scored 10 goals, allowed 10 goals, and are smack dab in the middle of the table. Without Lukaku up top, they're considerably less scary, but they're still at team not to be taken lightly.

STOKE CITY

Before the season: 4 pointer

Now: 6 pointer

Analysis: How does Mark Hughes still get jobs? Anything is better than Pulis-ball, but after back to back wins, they have only three points from their last seven matches. They're more exciting to watch, but that's a bit like saying that watching grass grow is more exciting than watching paint dry.

CONCLUSION

If my math is correct, Spurs could get somewhere around 80 points (best case scenario), but more realistically, a team in the mid-70s puts us comforably top-4. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple points dropped due to stubborn tactics, but the goals will come as the team becomes more tight-knit. Spurs fans should still be excited about this season. Fixture congestion could still become a problem, but it's also a sign that at least SOMETHING is going right. Audere est Facere. To dare is to do. COME ON YOU SPURS!

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