Premier League Projections, Week 17: Liverpool in the chase

Paul Gilham

It might be a major holiday, but I've still got data to share. Enjoy.

By the numbers, Tottenham Hotspur's victory over Southampton at the weekend was a marginal one. Both clubs put three shots on target from inside the box, two from wide areas and one from the danger zone. Spurs did have two shots from the high-expectation close-central area, but one of Southampton's wide shots on target was assisted by a through-ball, and they had a few more shots from outside the box. Hugo Lloris made a couple very clutch saves of good one-on-one chances to preserve the three points for Spurs.

But a close win over Southampton is a very good thing. This was a match Spurs were projected to win about 1/3 of the time and draw a little less than 1/3 of the time, meaning that I had Spurs taking an average of 1.3 points from the fixture. So a victory is 1.7 points in added expectation.

Spurs still stand 7th on average in the projected table, now just fractional points behind Manchester United. They are about ten points ahead of Newcastle United, even though the Magpies are currently even with Spurs in the actual table. What's going on with that?

Basically, I don't think Newcastle are as good as their record. They are the only club in the top nine in the league that have conceded more shots and shots on target from the danger zone than they have attempted. Newcastle have a positive shots ratio because they have taken nearly twice as many shots from outside the box than their opponents. Those count, and when you have Yohan Cabaye taking some of the shots from outside the box, you should expect some goals in the bargain. But overall, Newcastle's underlying stats are those of a .500 team, not a top four contender.

For comparison, these are Newcastle's basic underlying stats compared to the average underlying stats of Everton, Manchester United, Spurs and Southampton (the other four clubs on the outside looking in to the top four at the moment).

Team xG DZ Shots DZ SoT W SiB W SiBoT SoB SoBoT
Newcastle Att 21.4 74 30 32 16 146 41
Newcastle Def 20.4 93 39 33 12 86 26
E/M/S/T Att 22.0 89 37 46 18 110 34
E/M/S/T Def 17.1 72 29 31 14 82 24

Newcastle have a -19 shot difference in the danger zone (-9 SoT difference), while their competitors average +17 and +8. I think it is very likely that Newcastle start to drop points soon, and I would not project them as tremendously likely to take points off Arsenal on the 29th.

Projections and Power Rankings

Because of rounding, not all the numbers necessarily add up quite right.

Club W D L Pts GD Team+ Top4% ΔT4 Rel% ΔRel Title% ΔTitle 5th
Manchester City 25 6 7 80 +57 163 96% +1 0% 0 55% +8 3%
Liverpool 23 7 8 76 +39 147 83% +0 0% 0 20% +3 9%
Arsenal 22 9 7 75 +31 140 80% -8 0% 0 16% -10 10%
Chelsea 21 9 8 72 +26 135 59% -1 0% 0 6% -0 19%
Everton 19 13 6 70 +23 125 45% +7 0% 0 3% +1 22%
Manchester United 19 9 10 65 +20 131 19% +0 0% 0 0.5% +0 17%
Tottenham Hotspur 19 8 11 65 +5 122 16% +3 0% 0 0.5% +0 15%
Newcastle United 16 9 13 57 -0 95 2% +1 0% 0 0% 0 3%
Southampton 14 13 11 55 +7 109 1% -1 0% 0 0% 0 2%
Swansea City 13 11 14 51 +1 105 0% -0.5 0.5% +0.5 0% 0 0.5%
Aston Villa 11 10 17 44 -12 82 0% 0 4% +0 0% 0 0%
Stoke City 9 14 15 42 -11 80 0% 0 7% -1 0% 0 0%
West Bromwich Albion 9 13 16 41 -10 87 0% 0 9% +0 0% 0 0%
Norwich City 10 10 18 40 -25 72 0% 0 12% -4 0% 0 0%
Hull City 9 12 17 40 -17 68 0% 0 12% -6 0% 0 0%
Cardiff City 9 10 19 36 -26 64 0% 0 33% +1 0% 0 0%
West Ham United 8 11 19 35 -18 74 0% 0 33% +0 0% 0 0%
Fulham 9 6 23 33 -31 66 0% 0 55% +3 0% 0 0%
Sunderland 7 10 21 31 -29 72 0% 0 67% -1 0% 0 0%
Crystal Palace 8 7 23 31 -31 63 0% 0 67% +5 0% 0 0%

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Cartilage Free Captain

You must be a member of Cartilage Free Captain to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Cartilage Free Captain. You should read them.

Join Cartilage Free Captain

You must be a member of Cartilage Free Captain to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Cartilage Free Captain. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9353_tracker