It depends on what you mean by "oh crap": Power rankings and season projection, Week 30

Richard Heathcote

A statistical projection of the remaining Premier League season, in which Tottenham are still ahead of Arsenal, but not by much.

That sucked. Not only did Tottenham spit the bit in their easiest game of the next several weeks, but Chelsea and Arsenal won. The numbers remain well removed from terrible for Spurs, mostly because the system still thinks they're a very good club. But another loss or two, and the chances of good outcomes are going to start shrinking fast.

Power Rankings

There's actually a little bit of movement here, which I think is probably unusual after 30 weeks. Liverpool played perhaps even more poorly than Tottenham in a defeat at Southampton, while Arsenal and Chelsea won relatively easily. The pack is bunched up pretty tightly now in the power rankings, though of course Liverpool are now nearly out of real-world top four contention.

Club Team+ Att+ Def-
Manchester City 156 136 56
Manchester United 150 145 72
Liverpool 132 130 84
Chelsea 130 122 79
Tottenham Hotspur 129 126 83
Arsenal 124 120 87
Everton 115 124 105
Southampton 96 100 107
Swansea City 92 91 103
Fulham 91 96 107
West Bromwich Albion 91 88 100
Newcastle United 90 105 122
West Ham United 87 81 100
Stoke City 86 67 83
Norwich City 80 76 101
Sunderland 78 83 114
Wigan Athletic 75 86 124
Aston Villa 72 77 115
Queens Park Rangers 72 78 116
Reading 54 70 140

  • Liverpool ran into Southampton, the Liverpool of the bottom of the table. Southampton have continually failed to get the results their underlying stats project, right up until they soundly beat Liverpool on Saturday. This, plus the entire Swansea club deciding to take a personal day for the Arsenal match, have put Southampton solidly in the front of the trailing pack.
  • The stats weren't that impressed with Everton's performance against City. Everton scored two of their three shots on target, converting their only credited "big chance." City managed eight SoT and four BC without a goal. So both clubs remain about where they were in the power rankings before this all began.
  • Reading are terrible.

Projected Table

An eventful week, and all in the bad way. But the season is far from over. As I said before the Fulham game, if you told me in August that Spurs would be >50% to make the Champions League at the end of March, I wouldn't have been sad to hear it.

Club W D L Pts %Title ΔTitle %Top 4 ΔTop 4 %Rel ΔRel
Manchester United 29 4 5 91 99% +2 100% 0 0% 0
Manchester City 23 10 5 79 1% -2 100% 0 0% 0
Chelsea 20 9 9 70 0% 0 81% +9 0% 0
Tottenham Hotspur 20 8 10 68 0% 0 58% -23 0% 0
Arsenal 19 10 9 67 0% 0 50% +21 0% 0
Everton 16 14 8 61 0% 0 8% +3 0% 0
Liverpool 17 10 11 61 0% 0 4% -8 0% 0
West Bromwich Albion 16 7 15 54 0% 0 0% -.1 0% 0
Swansea City 12 12 14 49 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0
Fulham 12 11 15 48 0% 0 0% 0 0% -.5
Norwich City 10 15 13 44 0% 0 0% 0 2% +1
Stoke City 9 16 13 44 0% 0 0% 0 2% +1
West Ham United 12 8 18 44 0% 0 0% 0 2% +1
Newcastle United 12 7 19 43 0% 0 0% 0 3% +2
Southampton 10 12 16 42 0% 0 0% 0 4% -7
Sunderland 9 12 17 39 0% 0 0% 0 18% +6
Aston Villa 9 11 18 38 0% 0 0% 0 33% -7
Wigan Athletic 9 9 20 36 0% 0 0% 0 49% -11
Queens Park Rangers 6 13 19 32 0% 0 0% 0 89% +14
Reading 6 10 22 29 0% 0 0% 0 98% +2

  • Spurs' chances at 3rd place dropped equally precipitously, down to 23% from 50%. Second place is still vaguely in play (but also not really) at 2%.
  • If you're looking for points goals, the average 3rd place club was on 72 points, and the average 4th place finish came in at 68 points. So that's a 6-0-2 finish for 3rd, 4-2-2 for 4th.
  • Once again, Aston Villa improved their chances at survival but their chance of being relegated on goal difference increased. 6% and rising.
  • If it were anyone other than Arsenal and Tottenham bouncing madly toward and away from the Champions League places, I'd have more to say. As it is, blerg.
  • QPR were on a razor's edge before the weekend, and even with a relatively good overall performance against Aston Villa, they're heading back toward "basically screwed."
  • As before, the numbers often do not add up properly, due to rounding. I prefer to publish whole numbers wherever possible, for readability and to avoid giving a false sense of precision. These numbers should not be considered anything more than rough estimates based on rough estimates, with obvious blind spots. But hopefully they're fun.

Reading are terrible.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Cartilage Free Captain

You must be a member of Cartilage Free Captain to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Cartilage Free Captain. You should read them.

Join Cartilage Free Captain

You must be a member of Cartilage Free Captain to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Cartilage Free Captain. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9353_tracker