Premier League Projections and Power Rankings, week 36: Not Dead Yet

Shaun Botterill

A statistical projection of what remains of the English Premier League season.

Tottenham Hotspur survived to fight another day with a draw at Chelsea, but Tottenham's odds of making the Champions League took a decided hit. A win would have brought Spurs even with Chelsea and Arsenal. The draw means that Chelsea only need win one of their remaining two matches to finish top four, while Arsenal can gain entry to the Champions League if they don't drop any points. It's certainly more than possible that either club could stumble, but for Tottenham Hotspur to break back into the top four they need both a stumble and a perfect six points from their games as well. It's a lot to ask.

Projected Table

Club W D L Pts %Title ΔTitle %Top 4 ΔTop 4 %Rel ΔRel
Manchester United 28 5 5 89 100% 0 100% 0 0% 0
Manchester City 24 9 5 80 0% 0 100% 0 0% 0
Chelsea 21 10 7 73 0% 0 94% +13 0% 0
Arsenal 20 11 7 71 0% 0 72% +2 0% 0
Tottenham Hotspur 20 10 8 70 0% 0 34% -15 0% 0
Everton 16 15 7 63 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0
Liverpool 15 14 9 59 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0
West Bromwich Albion 15 6 17 50 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0
Swansea City 12 13 13 48 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0
West Ham United 12 10 16 46 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0
Stoke City 9 15 14 43 0% 0 0% 0 0% -.5
Southampton 10 12 16 42 0% 0 0% 0 .1% +.1
Aston Villa 11 10 17 42 0% 0 0% 0 .5% -15
Fulham 10 11 17 42 0% 0 0% 0 .1% +.1
Newcastle United 11 8 19 40 0% 0 0% 0 10% +2
Sunderland 9 12 17 40 0% 0 0% 0 4% -1
Norwich City 8 15 15 39 0% 0 0% 0 16% +12
Wigan Athletic 10 8 20 37 0% 0 0% 0 69% +2
Reading 6 10 22 29 0% 0 0% 0 100% 0
Queens Park Rangers 4 14 20 27 0% 0 0% 0 100% 0

  • Aston Villa have performed a remarkable escape act and are now nearly free from relegation risk. They have a higher relegation risk than other clubs at the 42 point mark because of their goal difference, but the chance of Aston Villa being relegated on goal difference has dropped to 0.3%.
  • By contrast, the risk of Spurs missing the Champions League on goal difference is only expanding, standing now at 13%.
  • Goal difference also explains the divergence between Newcastle, Sunderland, and Norwich City in relegation risk. Sunderland almost certainly can't lose the tie-breaker, while much of the danger to their northeastern rivals, as well as to Norwich, comes from goal difference.
  • Wigan aren't dead yet, but like Spurs they're going to need some mildly unexpected outcomes to reach their goals. Obviously these overlap. Wigan could really use points against Arsenal on Tuesday, while Spurs could do with Arsenal dropping points. This Tuesday, we are all Latics.
  • Fulham have gone into such a freefall that I have to register them among the relegation risk clubs again for the first time in six weeks. This suggests that merely reaching the 0% mark in 10,000 simulations isn't quite good enough as a determinant of whether a team has "nothing to play for." Fulham have something to play for now, at least.

Power Rankings

It's not so interesting to keep updating the power rankings later in the season, since only relatively small changes can take place. I'll run these here, and then again at the end of the season.

Club Team+ Att+ Def- Form+
Manchester City 160 135 56 159
Manchester United 154 141 69 165
Liverpool 141 134 79 156
Chelsea 136 120 75 140
Tottenham Hotspur 135 129 83 147
Arsenal 126 119 86 133
Everton 113 115 97 98
West Bromwich Albion 95 99 106 91
Southampton 93 98 107 104
Swansea City 90 92 105 80
Stoke City 87 69 82 75
Newcastle United 84 102 126 77
West Ham United 83 80 101 72
Wigan Athletic 80 90 116 107
Aston Villa 79 87 113 104
Fulham 79 89 117 53
Sunderland 74 80 113 77
Norwich City 73 74 107 59
Queens Park Rangers 67 76 119 54
Reading 51 73 143 48

  • Nothing can break the love affair between Liverpool and the power rankings. They may miss out on European football next year, they may once again finish behind their Merseyside rivals, but they will finish third in the all important power rankings table. And in the end, isn't that what really matters?
  • West Brom have been very good the last few weeks. They completely dominated a Southampton side that has impressed both subjective observers and the underlying stats, and they held their own against City and an improving Wigan club.
  • Wiganlona seems to be really be kind of a thing. They've been an above average EPL club now for a couple months, but it might not be quite enough. Aston Villa have parlayed a late season run into safety. Obviously Spurs can hope that both clubs play up to their form rating in games against our London rivals this week.
  • Reading actually improved in the power rankings. It should be noted that their 4-2 win over Fulham still saw Fulham produce four big chances and nine shots on target. This has brough Reading just over the 50 mark, meaning that they're now rated as slightly more than half as good as an average Premier League side.
  • That's terrible.

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