If any Spurs fan has been monitoring the #soldado feed today, they are probably starting to feel a very familiar sense of dread. Yet again, our ambition seems to be blocked by an unwillingness to pay a few extra million pounds for a quality player. (Although many fans might fail to see the difference between 23 and 25 million pounds, it should be noted that in fiscal 2012 Spurs had a net loss of 4 million pounds.) While I admire and appreciate Levy’s stewardship of the club in these turbulent financial times, I believe that this is the year to splash the cash. Allow me to make my case:
First, some realistic assumptions. I think it is fair to assume that if Spurs don’t qualify for CL this year, Bale will leave for Madrid. Although many may disagree, I think this assumption falls in line with most of what has been said so far. Also, let’s assume that last year was not Bale’s peak, but rather his breakthrough season, and thus he will perform at a comparable level this season. Finally, I’m pretty sure at least two players (take your pick) will be sold for around 9 million pounds total before the season kicks off.
OK, so from my perspective there are really only two outcomes for next year: 1) Spurs qualify for CL, and 2) Spurs don’t. If Spurs qualify, they can expect to earn around 27 million pounds from their CL adventures in 2014 (what they earned in 2010-2011). Thus, the Champions League revenue would offset Soldado’s price, and bring the net marginal spend to 13 million pounds (Paulinho + Chadli + Soldado – 2 Players Sold – CL Revenue). This sum of 13 million pounds seems like a reasonable amount to pay for CL qualification, even for a man such as Daniel Levy.
Now for the bad scenario, Spurs don’t qualify for the CL, and alas the Welsh rocket departs for warmer pastures. Given the current tabloid speculation, I think a bid of 65 to 70 million pounds would probably be accepted (given my initial assumption). This sum would clearly offset all of this year’s transfer fees, and result in a net marginal inflow of around 25-30 million pounds, a tidy sum that could be used to buy more talent.
Of course, I must also mention that each premier league club will earn about 25 million pounds extra this year from the new TV contract.
Although this simple analysis clearly ignores many issues (like the time value of money, or the wage bill), I think the point is clear. Now is the time for Spurs to splash the cash, as there may never be a better opportunity.