FanPost

An in-depth look at the EPL table thus far

I have been keeping track of all the premier league results on a table this year to see if anything can be gleaned from them. The answer is probably nothing but it is fun to look at and see how teams have performed so far this season. But, now that we are through week 26 of the season, the table does give some light to who has the easiestroad ahead and how teams have performed thus far. Because, big books that look at thousands of results tell us that there is a meaningful difference between playing home and away, I broke the table up to show home and away form in an easy manner. Then, to determine how tough each fixture has been this season I have taken the total points teams have gotten from that fixture and divided by the number of games to give it what I called a Par. For example teams hosting the Spurs are 2-2-9 for a total of 8 points from 13 games meaning the average team this year would have gotten 0.615384..... or 0.62 points from this fixture. This means Manchester City gained 2.38 points on the premier league field playing this fixture, compared to Manchester United who lost .62 points to the field playing that same fixture. Below is the table: (sorry for it being so big)

Team MANU MANC CHEL ARSL TOTT EVER LIVP WBA SWAN WHAM STOK NORC NEWC SOUTH FULH AVFC SUND CARD HULL CPFC @MANU @MANC @CHEL @ARSL @TOTT @EVER @LIVP @WBA @SWAN @WHAM @STOK @NORC @NEWC @SOUTH @FULH @AVFC @SUND @CARD @HULL @CPFC Points Goal +/- GF GiH Par +/- ExP PAP/G SoS ExPfF
1 Chelsea W 3-1 W 2-1 W 2-1 D 2-2 W 1-0 D 0-0 W 3-0 W 3-1 W 2-0 W 2-1 W 4-1 W 2-0 W 2-1 D 0-0 W 1-0 D 0-0 D 1-1 L 0-1 D 1-1 W 3-0 L 2-3 W 3-1 L 0-2 W 3-0 W 4-3 W 2-0 57 27 48 0 20.15 83.89 0.775 1.417 36.85
2 Manchester City W 4-1 L 0-1 W 6-3 W 6-0 W 3-1 W 2-1 W 3-0 W 7-0 W 4-0 W 4-2 W 2-0 W 1-0 L 1-2 W 5-1 W 3-2 W 3-2 W 3-1 D 0-0 D 0-0 W 2-0 D 1-1 W 4-2 L 2-3 L 0-1 L 2-3 54 41 68 1 16.96 80.04 0.678 1.482 37.04
3 Arsenal D 0-0 D 0-0 W 1-0 D 1-1 W 2-0 W 3-1 W 4-1 W 2-0 W 2-0 L 1-3 W 2-0 W 2-0 W 2-0 L 0-1 L 3-6 L 1-5 D 1-1 W 2-1 W 3-1 W 1-0 D 2-2 W 3-1 W 2-1 W 3-1 W 3-0 W 2-0 56 22 48 0 16.86 78.99 0.648 1.505 39.14
4 Liverpool W 1-0 W 5-1 W 4-0 W 4-1 W 4-1 W 1-0 W 5-1 L 0-1 W 4-0 D 2-2 W 3-1 W 2-0 W 3-1 L 1-2 L 1-2 L 0-2 W 5-0 D 3-3 D 1-1 D 2-2 W 5-3 D 2-2 W 3-2 W 1-0 W 3-1 L 1-3 53 34 66 0 14.7 75.61 0.565 1.473 38.3
5 Tottenham D 2-2 L 1-5 D 1-1 W 1-0 L 0-5 D 1-1 W 1-0 L 0-3 W 3-0 W 2-0 L 0-1 W 1-0 W 2-0 W 2-1 L 0-6 L 0-1 D 0-0 W 3-1 W 4-0 W 3-2 W 2-1 W 2-0 W 2-1 W 1-0 D 1-1 W 1-0 50 4 36 0 11.51 70.74 0.443 1.48 38.49
6 Everton W 1-0 D 0-0 D 3-3 D 0-0 W 4-0 W 2-0 W 3-2 W 2-1 W 4-1 W 2-1 L 0-1 W 2-1 W 1-0 L 1-3 D 1-1 L 0-1 L 0-4 D 1-1 W 2-1 W 3-2 D 1-1 D 2-2 W 2-0 D 0-0 D 0-0 45 11 37 1 10.62 70.14 0.424 1.375 34.38
7 Manchester United D 0-0 W 1-0 L 1-2 L 0-1 L 1-2 W 2-0 W 3-1 W 3-2 L 0-1 D 1-1 D 2-2 W 2-0 W 2-0 L 1-4 L 1-3 D 0-0 D 2-2 L 0-1 W 4-1 L 1-2 W 1-0 W 3-1 W 3-0 W 2-1 D 2-2 W 3-2 42 10 41 0 5.86 61.93 0.225 1.39 36.14
8 Southampton D 1-1 L 0-3 D 2-2 L 2-3 W 1-0 W 2-0 D 0-0 D 2-2 W 2-0 L 2-3 D 1-1 W 4-1 W 2-0 D 1-1 L 1-3 L 0-2 L 1-2 W 1-0 W 1-0 D 1-1 L 0-1 D 1-1 W 3-0 D 2-2 W 3-0 W 1-0 39 8 37 0 3.11 57.93 0.12 1.38 35.89
9 Newcastle United L 0-2 W 2-0 L 0-1 L 0-4 D 2-2 W 2-1 D 0-0 W 5-1 W 2-1 D 1-1 W 1-0 L 0-3 L 2-3 W 1-0 L 0-4 L 0-3 W 1-0 L 2-3 L 0-1 L 0-3 W 3-1 D 0-0 W 2-1 L 1-2 W 2-1 W 3-0 37 -6 32 0 0.97 54.25 0.037 1.386 36.03
10 Aston Villa L 0-3 W 3-2 L 1-2 L 0-2 L 0-2 L 0-1 W 4-3 D 1-1 L 0-2 L 1-2 D 0-0 W 2-0 L 0-1 L 1-2 W 3-1 L 1-2 D 2-2 D 2-2 D 0-0 L 1-2 W 1-0 W 3-2 L 0-2 W 1-0 D 0-0 D 0-0 28 -9 27 0 -6.19 43.33 -0.238 1.315 34.19
11 Hull City L 2-3 L 0-2 D 1-1 W 3-1 W 1-0 D 0-0 W 1-0 L 0-1 W 6-0 D 0-0 W 1-0 D 1-1 L 0-1 L 0-2 L 0-2 L 0-2 L 0-1 L 1-2 L 0-2 D 1-1 D 1-1 L 0-1 W 3-2 L 1-4 W 2-0 L 0-1 27 -6 25 0 -7.14 41.69 -0.275 1.313 34.14
12 Swansea City L 1-4 L 2-3 L 1-2 L 1-3 L 1-2 D 2-2 D 0-0 D 3-3 W 3-0 W 2-0 W 4-0 W 3-0 D 1-1 L 0-2 L 0-3 L 0-1 L 0-1 W 2-0 L 0-2 D 1-1 D 1-1 L 0-2 W 2-1 D 1-1 L 0-1 W 2-0 28 -3 33 0 -8.12 40.51 -0.312 1.389 36.12
13 Crystal Palace L 0-2 L 0-1 D 0-0 W 3-1 L 0-2 W 1-0 W 1-0 D 1-1 L 0-3 L 1-4 W 3-1 W 2-0 W 1-0 L 0-2 L 0-1 L 1-2 L 0-2 L 0-2 L 1-3 L 0-2 L 1-2 L 0-1 L 0-2 W 1-0 W 1-0 26 -16 18 1 -7.98 39.75 -0.319 1.36 33.98
14 West Ham United L 1-3 L 0-3 L 1-3 L 2-3 D 3-3 W 2-0 L 0-1 W 2-0 L 1-3 W 3-0 D 0-0 D 0-0 W 2-0 L 1-3 D 0-0 W 3-0 L 1-4 D 0-0 L 1-3 D 0-0 D 0-0 L 1-2 W 2-0 W 2-0 L 0-1 L 0-1 28 -5 28 0 -9.43 38.58 -0.363 1.44 37.43
15 Stoke City W 2-1 D 0-0 W 3-2 D 1-1 L 3-5 D 0-0 D 1-1 L 0-1 D 1-1 W 2-1 W 2-0 D 0-0 W 2-1 L 2-3 L 1-3 L 0-3 L 0-4 L 0-1 D 3-3 W 1-0 L 1-5 D 2-2 L 0-1 L 0-1 D 0-0 L 0-1 27 -14 27 0 -9.43 38.43 -0.363 1.401 36.43
16 Norwich City L 0-1 D 0-0 L 1-3 D 2-2 D 1-1 W 3-1 D 0-0 W 1-0 L 1-2 L 0-1 D 0-0 W 1-0 W 1-0 L 0-7 L 1-4 L 0-2 L 0-2 L 1-5 W 2-0 L 0-2 W 1-0 L 1-2 D 0-0 L 1-2 L 0-1 D 1-1 25 -20 19 0 -10.55 36.71 -0.406 1.367 35.55
17 Cardiff City D 2-2 W 3-2 L 0-3 L 0-1 D 0-0 W 1-0 W 1-0 L 0-2 W 2-1 L 1-2 L 0-3 D 0-0 D 2-2 L 0-2 L 2-4 L 1-4 L 0-2 L 1-3 L 0-3 L 0-2 D 0-0 D 0-0 W 2-1 L 0-2 D 1-1 L 0-2 22 -25 19 0 -10.67 36.33 -0.41 1.257 32.67
18 West Bromwich L 2-3 D 1-1 D 1-1 D 1-1 D 1-1 L 0-2 L 0-2 W 1-0 L 0-1 D 2-2 W 3-0 D 1-1 W 2-0 W 2-1 D 2-2 D 1-1 D 0-0 L 1-4 D 3-3 D 0-0 L 1-2 L 0-1 D 1-1 L 3-4 L 0-1 L 1-3 24 -8 30 0 -11.35 35.84 -0.437 1.36 35.35
19 Sunderland L 1-2 W 1-0 L 3-4 L 1-3 L 1-2 L 1-3 W 1-0 D 0-0 W 2-1 D 2-2 L 0-1 L 0-1 L 0-2 W 1-0 L 0-3 L 0-4 D 0-0 L 0-2 W 3-0 D 1-1 W 4-1 D 0-0 D 2-2 L 0-1 L 1-3 24 -13 25 1 -11.81 34.16 -0.472 1.432 35.81
20 Fulham L 1-3 L 2-4 L 1-3 L 1-2 L 2-3 D 1-1 L 1-2 W 2-1 W 1-0 L 0-3 W 2-0 L 1-4 L 1-2 D 2-2 L 0-2 L 0-2 L 1-4 L 0-4 L 0-2 L 0-3 W 2-1 L 0-1 L 0-2 W 1-0 L 0-6 W 4-1 20 -32 26 0 -13.09 32.27 -0.503 1.273 33.09

Par 1.15 1.15 1.09 0.85 0.62 1.15 1.23 1.85 1.85 1.69 2.31 2.23 1.46 1.23 2.15 1.31 1.58 2.31 2.31 2.5 1.15 0.25 0.15 0.46 1.15 0.5 0.31 1.38 1.46 1.62 1.15 1.31 1.38 1.08 2.15 2 2 1.46 1.23 1.31

On the far right of the table in gray is the totality of my observation. Par +/- shows how well each team has performed through the fixtures they have played thus far. ExP means the Expected Points the team will have if they continue to perform as they have performed thus far. PAP/G means Points above or below par divided by games played. SoS means Strength of Schedule thus far, the larger this number is the easier your schedule has been, the smaller this number is the harder your schedule has been. Top teams have larger numbers because they benefit from not playing themselves. ExPfF means Expected Points from Fixtures played this far this season.

So based purely on results thus far this season, Chelsea are favorites to win the title with about 84 points. Spurs look like they will finish 5th with 71 points, behind Liverpool who will have around 76 points, and just above Everton who have played the toughest schedule this far among the teams in top 7.

So what does this mean for Spurs? While I think Spurs will thus need to get 27 points from their remaining 12 games to get a top 4 spot because we are not going to pass Liverpool on goal difference. So to get 27 points Spurs need to win 9 of the next 12, or win 8 and draw 3. Which is optimistic but not impossible. So let's look at the remaining fixtures at the average points the league is getting from them..

@Norwich City - 1.31

A must win for Spurs if they want to finish in the top 4. Nothing much more to say here then the numbers show Norwich is much better at home then they are away, where teams average almost a full point better against them (2.23).

Cardiff City - 2.31

A must win for Spurs. Only Fulham have lost to Cardiff City at home this season, and nobody in the top half of the table has dropped points when Cardiff City has come to play them. It should also be noted that Cardiff City has played the toughest schedule thus far this season. They only have to play the top 7 four more time this season. Who they have been dreadful against going 1-2-7 against.

@Chelsea - 0.15

The hardest tie left in the Spurs Schedule. If Spurs can get a result at Chelsea it would be a big gain for their top 4 chances.

Arsenal - 0.85

I hope the results this far are wrong and Arsenal are not actually as good as their record says they are.

Southampton - 1.23

A must win for Spurs. Also, Southampton has been poor against the top 7 this year going 1-3-5.

@Liverpool - 0.31

Liverpool have been really good at home this year, but Spurs have been the best away from home this year, so let's hope Spurs can get a big win in this fixture.

Sunderland - 1.58

Sunderland has yet to play any of the top 5 away from home, and are 1-0-4 against the top 5 at home this season. Making this a must win for Spurs.

@West Bromwich Albion - 1.38

WBA have played the top 7 tough this year, and have grinned out 7 draws thus far.

Fulham - 2.15

Simply a must win for Spurs, can't have what happened last year happen again.

@Stoke City - 1.15

Stoke as expected have not been a fun team to play at the Britannia this season.

@West Ham United - 1.62

West Ham have yet to get a single point at home from the top 9 in the table this season. Making this a must win for Spurs.

Aston Villa - 1.31

Aston Villa have been all over the map this season when playing away from home, with big wins over Arsenal and Southampton ,and terrible losses to teams Norwich and Sunderland.

So if Spurs can win all the games they should win they will get to 77 points. But a big win against one of the teams in the top 4 will give them some wiggle room and a big boost.

Note: Data entry is all by hand thus if you see any error, let me know and I will fix it.

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