EPL Projections, Week 30: Win or go home

Clive Rose

This was a busy week. Here are some numbers.

Tottenham Hotspur lost to Chelsea this week. Dropped points were expected, but as I discussed in my hot stat takes piece, the extent of Chelsea's win was notable. Spurs' attack produced almost nothing, with the result that the loss hurt a bit more than I'd projected. The gap from Arsenal projected in fourth down to Spurs, Everton and United projected 5th-7th has grown into a chasm.

Win or Go Home

That means Sunday's North London Derby is an effective elimination game. If Spurs win, we return to the fringes of the top four race and Arsenal find themselves in a bit of trouble. If Arsenal can prevail at the Lane, that will put to bed any meaningful chance of Tottenham making a run for the Champions League.

Outcome MCofA% Bookie% TOT %T4 ARS %T4 ARS %Title
Tottenham W 34% 31% 12% 81% 1%
Draw 28% 30% 4% 90% 1%
Arsenal W 38% 39% 1% 96% 3%

My stats and the bookies agree that Spurs simply don't project as a particularly good team. Arsenal are small favorites even in an away match. But it's not over yet.

Projections and Power Rankings

Because of rounding, not all the numbers necessarily add up quite right.

Club W D L Pts GD Team+ Top4% ΔT4 Rel% ΔRel Title% ΔTitle %Eur
Chelsea 25 9 4 84 +43 150 99.9% +0.5 0% 0 52% +10 0%
Manchester City 26 5 7 82 +56 160 99.5% +0.5 0% 0 29% -6 0.5%
Liverpool 25 6 7 80 +47 160 99% +1 0% 0 17% -3 1%
Arsenal 23 7 8 76 +29 132 90% +2 0% 0 2% -1 10%
Tottenham Hotspur 20 7 11 67 +3 110 5% -4 0% 0 0% 0 71%
Everton 18 12 8 66 +16 119 5% -0 0% 0 0% 0 62%
Manchester United 19 8 11 64 +19 123 2% +1 0% 0 0% 0 50%
Newcastle United 17 6 15 57 -2 100 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 3%
Southampton 15 11 12 56 +6 115 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 2%
Aston Villa 11 10 17 42 -10 85 0% 0 1% -1 0% 0 0%
Stoke City 10 12 16 42 -16 76 0% 0 2% -1 0% 0 0%
Hull City 11 9 18 42 -7 86 0% 0 2% -1 0% 0 0%
Swansea City 10 11 17 41 -6 91 0% 0 3% -1 0% 0 0%
West Ham United 10 10 18 40 -12 67 0% 0 6% -1 0% 0 0%
West Bromwich Albion 7 16 15 38 -12 91 0% 0 15% +4 0% 0 0%
Crystal Palace 10 6 22 37 -24 76 0% 0 25% +5 0% 0 0%
Norwich City 9 10 19 37 -28 71 0% 0 26% +0 0% 0 0%
Sunderland 9 9 20 36 -24 70 0% 0 40% -3 0% 0 0%
Cardiff City 7 9 22 31 -37 54 0% 0 86% -8 0% 0 0%
Fulham 8 5 25 29 -43 61 0% 0 93% +6 0% 0 0%

  • Fulham? You're cut. Cardiff? You're cut too.
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