FanPost

Top 4

It has been said after Hull City, after Norwich and after Chelsea that this was the end of Tottenham's hope for top 4 and Champions League football.
But it is not.
Sure a lot of people think we can't beat the top four teams, but since Sherwood we have played two top four teams, the 1st and the 2nd (considering ManCity win their games in hand). Those games were both lost by four goals, but we were playing well and only losing 0-1 in both until a controversial penalty and red card were given. So why couldn't we beat the two other top 4 teams? Arsenal have recently been in and out of form, and we will play them just after their CL game against Bayern, so we can seriously hope to win. Liverpool have found their form, but remain week in defense and we could just try to block their attacks and it them on the counter (or try some weird Sherwood tactic with 50% chance of success), in a game were a draw would be a good result. Because if we manage to get those 4 points, we would have room for error if we're aiming for the ~75 points needed to qualify for the CL (based on Michael Caley's calculations [ http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/1/14/5307934/epl-2014-title-race ]). We have indeed only those two games against top sides, while Arsenal still play Chelsea away, Everton away, ManCity at home and of course us at White Hart Lane. Now even though it might seem unrealistic, this means we could pass Arsenal if they lose these games.

Here are Spurs and Arsenal's last 8 games, with a prediction of the points they will get:

Spurs (53 points) : Arsenal - 56 | Southampton - 59 | Liverpool - 60 | Sunderland - 63 | West Brom - 66 | Fulham - 69| Stoke City - 72| West Ham - 75 | Aston Villa - 78

Arsenal (62 points) : Spurs - 62| Chelsea - 62| ManCity - 62 |Everton - 62 | West Ham - 65| Hull City - 68| Newcastle - 71| West Brom - 74| Norwich - 77

(Arsenal are written as having 62 points because I considered that they will beat Swansea.)

This shows that we still have all our chances, but that a lot depends on Arsenal next four games. The most probable game for Arsenal to win that I put they would lose is the Everton one, but seeing that that is the fourth game I'm hoping they'll be exhausted and demoralized when they go to Goodison Park. We will probably slip up in one of our last 5 games, but there's no reason Arsenal wouldn't slip up as well, so our chances aren't as bad as some may think and that's why we should continue believing in CL football.


COYS

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