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Tottenham Forecast: A Review of Our Title Hopes

This, this is the trophy we want people.
This, this is the trophy we want people.

This is it folks, we are finally hitting the prime of the season, the table picture is much clearer than it was two months ago, and we can make fairly strong guesses about where this Spurs team is going to end up once all 38 are accounted for. Currently Tottenham Hotspur are sitting on 46 points off of 21 matches, just a hair above 2 points per match. Meanwhile, we find ourselves sitting third place in the table, 5 points behind Manchester City, 2 points behind Manchester United. On the other end, we are 6 points clear of Chelsea in 4th place and 10 points above Arsenal in 5th place. All in all, we are positioned very comfortably, but there is still room to bottom out and put a damper on this season. However, I don't see that happening. I also think I'm overdue in introducing myself to you all. Hi, I'm Nick Petrilli. You may remember me from such fanposts as Why I'm Rooting For The League Title, and Why You Should Too. In it, I discussed the fact that after 10 matches Spurs seemed set up perfectly for a title run. I didn't get too much support at the time. However, now I think you all might be more receptive to all this optimism and unbridled hope I've been running with, no matter how contrary it runs to a normal Spurs fans thought process (panic, worry, pessimism).

So let's take a quick review of what I said in the last article where I espoused to you all the gospel of Tottenham as title contenders. First, I'll point out that one more fixture than was previously figured in came into the schedule, and thus Tottenham had eleven matches since my post, but the prediction still holds up. Anyways, I predicted that Manchester City, after getting 31 points from 11 matches, would only get 20 points out of their next ten matches. Now, bask in my predictive glory, as that turned out to be exactly right and Manchester City are now sitting on 51 points in the league after dropping all the points against Chelsea and Sunderland and only getting 1 point from Liverpool and West Bromwich Albion fixtures. Meanwhile, in my "optimistic" prediction for Spurs next 10 games (it became 11) I said we could get 25 out of our next 30 due to a light fixture schedule and our run of form. In the end, we ended up with 24 points out of the 33 that were possible, not spot on like my Manchester City prediction but pretty close in the end. However, there are still 17 matches to play! "What about the next 10 matches, all knowing writer!" you might be saying to yourself. Well, luckily, I decided to look ahead at the fixtures and, once again, forecast Spurs ongoing title challenge between now and the stretch run of the season.



Looking ahead, our next 10 matches won't be nearly as easy as the previous 11 were. We're playing at Manchester City, Liverpool, Everton, Arsenal, and Chelsea. At home we have Wigan Athletic, Newcastle United, Manchester United, Stoke City, and Swansea City. That would be, ladies and gentlemen, 9 out of the Top 11 clubs on the table in the next ten matches. The only respite we will have is the fixture against bottom of the table, getting relegated as soon as possible Wigan. Now, in typical Spurs fashion, you might be panicking right now at the thought of that fixture schedule, and assume that we will completely bottom out of the title race during this stretch and all your optimism will be thrown back in your face. Well, I can't make guarantees. This is Spurs, and that very well could happen. This season though, we have to put ourselves on the line for this stretch and actually be optimistic and think we can do the impossible, because this team deserves it. Anywho, going back to the actual predicting.

This is going to look very familiar to some, but I honestly think we can take 20 out of our next 30, maybe more, maybe less. I figure we're going to pick up two losses somewhere down this run, probably against the Manchester teams, but we could always get points on one and drop points we shouldn't be dropping elsewhere, like we did with Wolves. The really nice thing about this stretch is that we have our easy games at home, and our tougher games on the road. While this may not make sense to you, it does to me. Essentially, Spurs can play the lesser sides at home, and with the home advantage have a much, much higher chance of taking all or 1 point from that match. The only team to beat us at home has been Manchester City, and the only squad I see with a chance at joining them are Manchester United.

Looking at the games, Manchester City can be anything due tot he absences Manchester City will have, we could lose, draw, or win. Wigan should be already slotted in as a win, and losing to that side will be a major detriment to any title hopes we have. Winning at Liverpool during Suarez's ban shouldn't be impossible, I expect we at least get a draw out of that match. Newcastle at home looks appetizing, as Newcastle's form in the last 10 matches has been less than stellar, but things could change. I expect to win or draw. Arsenal is a win. I don't care what you're saying. It's a win, it's always a win when prognosticating, because it is Arsenal. Manchester United runs the gamut from a win to a loss as well, total wild card of a game. However, relying on Paul Scholes will certainly up our chances in this game compared to the August fixture. Everton and Stoke are both tricky draws, I can also see wins, draws, or losses to these two, just because they're infuriating sides. If anything, expect the reverse of what we did this past month, we'll beat Stoke at the Lane and then lose an infuriating game to Everton. Against Chelsea I simply see another draw, though depending on if AVB is sacked by then I could be persuaded to think we'll probably win. And I think that Swansea we can beat at home, but that team is dangerous and could definitely be the one non Manchester club to take all 3 points from us at the Lane.

So, there's my forecast. It's not very definitive, it doesn't tell us much. This prediction post is essentially the partly sunny of prediction posts. Surely you can do better in the comments?