Shot Matrix VI: Player Shooting Data

One thing I want to do with my shot matrix data is share a lot of it. Last time I used my four-and-a-half season sample of Premier League statistics to identify a weakly persistent but real player tendency to convert shots into goals. Now I'd like to share the data on individual player shooting results. First, I've got everyone who's taken 160 shots or more in the Premier League since 2009.

In my previous study linked above, I found a weak but persistent signal under the noise in player shooting skill for players with at least 100 shots in both the combined 2009-2011 seasons and 2011-2013 seasons. So for players with at least 160 shots, probably some portion of the effect seen reflects real ability.

The other thing this data shows, separately from the possibility of player skill, is player shooting results. Given the chances this player has taken, how many goals should he have scored? How well has he done converting chances, adjusted for chance quality? Obviously I am not in any way accounting for every aspect of chance quality. Until we have SportVU for football, we won't be able to account for defensive positioning, and everyone knows the chance of scoring depends hugely on where the defenders are positioned, how prepared they are for the shot, and so on. I am hopeful that over 160 shots, these factors will significantly even out, but I can't know that.

Still, I think the data is interesting. Here we go:

Player Shooting Data 2009-2013

• Shots, shots on target and goals are pretty self-explanatory.
• So is player name.
• S Conv+ is a rating of the player's finishing of shots, scaled to 100. 100 means the player scored exactly as many goals as expected based on the quality of his chaces, over 100 is above average, below is, well, below.
• SoT+ is like S Conv+, but instead is a rating of the player's record putting shots on target. Over 100 means the player was above average at placing his shots on target, and vice versa.
• G/SoT+, then, is scoring rate on shots on target relative to league average.
• Shot Qual is the average quality of shot taken, expressed in chance of scoring. A .10 Shot Qual means that the player's average chance taken had a 10% chance of being converted into a goal. I'll have more on shot quality below.

PLAYER	SHOTS	SOT	GOALS	S CONV+	SOT+	G/SOT+	SHOT QUAL
Wayne Rooney	543	210	69	140	120	120	0.091
Robin van Persie	510	235	82	130	122	109	0.123
Clint Dempsey	450	154	41	104	107	101	0.087
Luis Suárez	421	176	49	119	117	99	0.098
Gareth Bale	403	158	40	143	125	119	0.070
Hugo Rodallega	397	136	23	72	107	68	0.081
Didier Drogba	388	140	41	120	110	111	0.088
Carlos Tévez	370	146	46	125	115	113	0.099
Jermain Defoe	359	140	43	109	109	105	0.110
Frank Lampard	359	125	38	143	115	117	0.074
Fernando Torres	340	127	42	113	104	110	0.110
Dimitar Berbatov	301	122	49	131	111	121	0.125
Demba Ba	296	121	36	115	118	97	0.106
Nani	292	89	22	118	100	124	0.064
Steven Gerrard	292	93	21	118	106	110	0.061
Daniel Sturridge	289	114	39	141	114	121	0.096
Stewart Downing	283	79	12	67	91	74	0.063
Theo Walcott	279	123	34	123	119	103	0.099
Darren Bent	272	118	45	122	113	108	0.136
Peter Crouch	261	101	30	97	110	89	0.119
Andy Carroll	259	84	23	91	100	98	0.098
Sergio Agüero	258	108	40	129	110	124	0.120
Steven Fletcher	258	104	41	144	117	114	0.110
Leon Osman	258	85	17	80	104	83	0.082
Edin Dzeko	241	96	33	122	115	106	0.113
Peter Odemwingie	236	76	28	131	95	131	0.090
Louis Saha	231	72	22	103	95	111	0.092
Charles N'Zogbia	225	78	18	123	110	109	0.065
Ashley Young	223	78	13	82	110	84	0.071
Marouane Fellaini	222	76	17	76	103	74	0.101
Charlie Adam	222	61	11	101	99	103	0.049
Samir Nasri	220	79	22	111	105	105	0.090
Gabriel Agbonlahor	217	87	30	137	116	116	0.101
David Silva	217	76	17	83	102	78	0.095
Kenwyne Jones	212	79	21	88	104	89	0.113
Rafael van der Vaart	211	80	19	112	121	91	0.080
Matthew Taylor	209	63	8	52	96	61	0.074
Chris Brunt	208	47	7	59	79	72	0.057
Yaya Touré	204	66	26	150	101	145	0.085
Emmanuel Adebayor	201	88	33	108	108	101	0.153
Adel Taarabt	201	70	7	77	125	64	0.045
Carlton Cole	200	75	17	76	102	79	0.111
Craig Gardner	199	55	14	124	96	121	0.057
Nicolas Anelka	193	80	18	89	117	77	0.105
Mohamed Diamé	193	47	9	74	82	108	0.063
Cameron Jerome	191	63	21	91	91	95	0.121
Danny Welbeck	191	67	18	86	100	89	0.109
Steven Pienaar	188	60	15	112	102	111	0.071
Luka Modric	187	52	9	76	93	87	0.063
Florent Malouda	186	70	27	150	110	123	0.097
Dirk Kuyt	185	68	18	72	100	74	0.135
Franco Di Santo	185	71	14	91	118	80	0.084
James Morrison	185	52	13	111	96	115	0.063
Andrey Arshavin	184	63	16	101	101	98	0.086
Stéphane Sessegnon	181	57	17	114	98	120	0.083
Robert Huth	180	41	13	63	65	89	0.115
Kevin Doyle	179	53	15	72	84	84	0.116
Victor Moses	179	52	10	63	87	78	0.088
Jonathan Walters	176	56	14	71	90	87	0.113
Jordi Gómez	174	50	8	66	95	77	0.070
Tim Cahill	173	60	19	100	104	93	0.110
Jordan Henderson	172	51	11	89	98	92	0.072
Jamie O'Hara	172	49	7	78	101	82	0.052
Aaron Ramsey	168	55	15	98	97	107	0.091
Kevin Davies	165	48	16	81	82	105	0.120
Johan Elmander	164	51	13	66	86	69	0.120
Bobby Zamora	164	68	22	129	119	109	0.104
Kevin Nolan	163	59	22	88	92	89	0.154
Tom Huddlestone	162	34	4	60	77	76	0.041

There are a lot of things to remark on here, and I'm hoping to hear from all y'all in the comments on individual player ratings that you find interesting, that might be a function of some other effect rather than player skill, whatever.

The one that stands out most to me, having followed him last year, is Adel Taarabt. I think that unlike almost any other EPL player, Taarabt really does just try to put shots on target. Everyone else, pretty much, is trying to score. Taarabt shoots from outside the box, routinely into the keeper's arms, more than any other player I've ever seen. And he does indeed rate above average at SoT+, but he's so incredibly awful at scoring his shots on target that he rates as a very poor finisher overall. Because Taarabt's average chance quality is very poor—in the above table only Tom Huddlestone joins him at under 5% chance quality—he looks like the classic example of a player who wastes possession for little gain.

Stewart Downing is interesting to me. With Liverpool he took tons of shots, 221 from 2011-2013 combined. This season with West Ham, he's taken only 16. Sam Allardyce appears to have recognize what kind of player he has in Downing. (In a future piece, I'll be looking at chance creation quality, and Downing does appear to be one of the better crossers of the ball in the league.) This is not someone who should be shooting.

Shot Quality for Players

I showed in a previous article that average shot quality is a persistent team quality, and particularly a persistent managerial quality. Of course, if the average quality of shots taken remains persistent even for clubs that change their manager, we should think this is a player effect. And it makes sense watching football. Everyone knows that Gareth Bale with take shots from long distance while sometimes also finding himself in good positions in the box, everyone knows that Chicharito just hangs out by the goal and looks for close-range chances. And then there's Andros Townsend, who does nothing but pop from deep. Players have styles of play, which lead to tendencies in what shots they'll attempt and which they won't.

As you can see from the scatter plot to the right, players have strong and distinct tendencies year-to-year to take chances of roughly similar quality. I'm looking at players with just minimum 20 shots in both year 1 and year 2, so this is an effect that shows up in quite small samples. I get a much better correlation, in the range of .80, for players with 75+ shots over multiple seasons.

Now, of course, player tendencies aren't the only thing driving this correlation. There's also tactical effects.

Over on the scatter plot, you can see one dot off to the right edge. In year one, he was just under 0.16, a real penalty box finisher, while in year two he was well below league average at just over .07, numbers that reflect mostly outside-the-box shooting. That's Gylfi Sigurdsson, first with Brendan Rodgers at Swansea City then with Andre Villas-Boas at Tottenham Hotspur. AVB converted Sigurdsson to an outside-the-box attacked to make use of the quality of his long-range shot, leading to a totally different average shot quality. I have isolated players who changed teams, and I find that even at a 20 shot sample, player effects remain. But they're notably weaker when separated from manager effects:

So let's take a look at players with at least 75 shots total who have the highest and lowest average chance quality.

Players Listed by Chance Quality

Since the shot samples are much smaller now, we shouldn't read too much into the shot conversion rates for players with under 100 shots. That could be randomness, especially for players who take on average low quality chances. But I think the shot quality effects reflect real player tendencies, generally. First, we have our penalty box finishers:

PLAYER	SHOTS	SOT	GOALS	S CONV+	SOT+	G/SOT+	SHOT QUAL
Kevin Nolan	163	59	22	88	92	89	0.154
Emmanuel Adebayor	201	88	33	108	108	101	0.153
Javier Hernández	148	69	33	148	119	123	0.151
Ryan Shawcross	94	24	7	52	69	71	0.143
Yakubu	116	48	19	115	108	111	0.142
Darren Bent	272	118	45	122	113	108	0.136
Dirk Kuyt	185	68	18	72	100	74	0.135
DJ Campbell	79	28	14	131	96	142	0.135
John Carew	94	33	10	79	96	81	0.134
Salomon Kalou	115	42	16	105	97	107	0.133
Papiss Demba Cissé	136	57	20	113	111	101	0.130
Branislav Ivanovic	125	44	14	87	99	82	0.129
Danny Graham	125	62	14	87	132	70	0.128
Arouna Koné	95	38	11	91	106	89	0.127
Grant Holt	126	48	20	127	105	122	0.125
Dimitar Berbatov	301	122	49	131	111	121	0.125
Robin van Persie	510	235	82	130	122	109	0.123
Emile Heskey	76	25	7	75	92	75	0.123
Shane Long	98	47	18	151	131	113	0.122
Olivier Giroud	154	57	17	91	100	92	0.121
Cameron Jerome	191	63	21	91	91	95	0.121
Johan Elmander	164	51	13	66	86	69	0.120
Kevin Davies	165	48	16	81	82	105	0.120
Sergio Agüero	258	108	40	129	110	124	0.120
Romelu Lukaku	133	68	23	145	141	102	0.120
Nicklas Bendtner	134	48	15	94	99	99	0.119
Peter Crouch	261	101	30	97	110	89	0.119
Kevin Doyle	179	53	15	72	84	84	0.116
Christopher Samba	126	46	10	69	102	69	0.115
Robert Huth	180	41	13	63	65	89	0.115
Roger Johnson	81	18	2	22	67	34	0.113
Kenwyne Jones	212	79	21	88	104	89	0.113
Andrew Johnson	88	43	6	60	132	50	0.113
Maxi Rodríguez	107	40	15	124	104	107	0.113
Jonathan Walters	176	56	14	71	90	87	0.113
Edin Dzeko	241	96	33	122	115	106	0.113
Carlton Cole	200	75	17	76	102	79	0.111
Tim Cahill	173	60	19	100	104	93	0.110
Steven Fletcher	258	104	41	144	117	114	0.110
Jermain Defoe	359	140	43	109	109	105	0.110
Nikica Jelavic	126	53	15	108	119	93	0.110
Fernando Torres	340	127	42	113	104	110	0.110
Danny Welbeck	191	67	18	86	100	89	0.109
Ricardo Fuller	107	41	7	60	105	62	0.109
David Ngog	132	49	10	70	104	69	0.108
Gary Cahill	127	45	14	103	105	110	0.107
Demba Ba	296	121	36	115	118	97	0.106
Nicolas Anelka	193	80	18	89	117	77	0.105
Michu	140	49	20	137	105	129	0.104
Bobby Zamora	164	68	22	129	119	109	0.104
Martin Skrtel	81	18	8	96	67	124	0.103
Andreas Weimann	113	43	10	86	110	88	0.103
Frédéric Piquionne	111	34	8	71	87	80	0.101
Gabriel Agbonlahor	217	87	30	137	116	116	0.101
Marouane Fellaini	222	76	17	76	103	74	0.101
John Terry	97	33	17	174	107	160	0.101
Thomas Vermaelen	101	29	13	128	86	152	0.100
Anthony Pilkington	99	41	14	141	122	127	0.100

You get a combination here of defenders who mostly attempt headers from set pieces and penalty box strikers / poachers. Kevin Nolan is definitely the right person to head this group up. And here are the long-range speculators:

PLAYER	SHOTS	SOT	GOALS	S CONV+	SOT+	G/SOT+	SHOT QUAL
Andros Townsend	82	22	3	105	102	106	0.035
Aleksandar Kolarov	116	28	4	97	89	102	0.036
Cheik Tioté	81	16	1	34	76	44	0.037
Tom Huddlestone	162	34	4	60	77	76	0.041
Mark Noble	84	22	2	57	96	62	0.041
Maynor Figueroa	110	20	3	65	67	95	0.042
John Arne Riise	82	17			72		0.042
Alessandro Diamanti	96	34	3	74	128	57	0.042
Glenn Whelan	105	16	3	67	56	137	0.042
Darron Gibson	90	20	4	100	82	127	0.044
Adel Taarabt	201	70	7	77	125	64	0.045
Phillip Bardsley	79	16	6	166	74	254	0.046
Leighton Baines	131	30	8	131	81	150	0.047
Stilian Petrov	105	28	5	102	96	97	0.047
Morten Gamst Pedersen	140	42	10	152	106	132	0.047
Yohan Cabaye	142	47	11	159	117	146	0.049
Graham Dorrans	110	33	4	75	106	70	0.049
Martin Petrov	154	45	7	93	101	92	0.049
David Luiz	88	26	6	139	108	129	0.049
Charlie Adam	222	61	11	101	99	103	0.049
Joey Barton	105	24	5	94	81	106	0.051
Sebastian Larsson	154	62	15	189	140	137	0.052
Jamie O\'Hara	172	49	7	78	101	82	0.052
Mikel Arteta	134	37	14	193	98	158	0.054
Bradley Johnson	90	20	3	61	78	66	0.055
Hatem Ben Arfa	104	30	10	175	98	152	0.055
Chris Eagles	156	51	6	69	113	66	0.056
Adam Johnson	153	52	16	186	114	155	0.056
Craig Gardner	199	55	14	124	96	121	0.057
Chris Brunt	208	47	7	59	79	72	0.057
Marc Wilson	82	9	1	21	39	72	0.057
Victor Obinna	77	22	3	68	96	66	0.057
Scott Parker	116	32	8	119	94	131	0.058
Raul Meireles	115	35	7	105	103	96	0.058
James Milner	144	44	11	130	103	130	0.059
Robert Snodgrass	94	33	7	126	121	111	0.059
Steven Gerrard	292	93	21	118	106	110	0.061
Mohamed Diamé	193	47	9	74	82	108	0.063
Stewart Downing	283	79	12	67	91	74	0.063
James Morrison	185	52	13	111	96	115	0.063
Michael Carrick	100	22	6	95	75	125	0.063
Luka Modric	187	52	9	76	93	87	0.063
Nani	292	89	22	118	100	124	0.064
Mousa Dembélé	138	46	6	68	112	59	0.064
James McCarthy	109	28	7	100	86	99	0.064
Charles N'Zogbia	225	78	18	123	110	109	0.065
Shaun Wright-Phillips	138	33	5	56	74	72	0.065
Niko Kranjcar	93	31	9	148	111	123	0.065
Santiago Cazorla	131	47	13	150	121	121	0.066
Michael Essien	108	30	6	83	94	105	0.067
Ashley Cole	80	22	5	93	86	95	0.067
Damien Duff	157	54	15	143	111	126	0.067
Nathan Dyer	110	42	10	135	121	116	0.067
Martin Olsson	78	26	3	57	108	47	0.067
Youssuf Mulumbu	106	21	10	137	65	171	0.069
Jonás Gutiérrez	102	23	6	85	75	127	0.069
Gareth Bale	403	158	40	143	125	119	0.070
Jerome Thomas	90	24	4	64	84	70	0.070

Yup, that be Andros Townsend at the very top, no one with over 75 shots in the EPL 2009-2013 has taken on average worse quality shots than Townsend. His conversion rate is actually ok, since he scored a pair of his long-range attempts last year with Queens Park Rangers. But his average shot quality is so bad that three goals in 82 shots in a slightly above average rate.

I do think it's interesting how wide a range you see in the quality of finishing among long-range shooters. We should expect more random variation among players who take more speculative shots, as just one goal can change the numbers drastically. Sandro improved from a roughly 70 rating before his goal against United all the way up to 90 with one strike. But I think it's probably meaningful that among the best long-range shooters we see Yohan Cabaye, Leighton Baines, Hatem Ben Arfa and of course Gareth Bale. And you can see a good number of guys on this list whom you just don't get worried about when they take a long range shot against your club.

Players of Spurs Interest

Finally, I mean, this is a Spurs blog. You're wondering about Pav, aren't you? Well, the numbers might surprise you. Roman Pavlyuchenko scored 15 goals on 120 shots, a rate of 12.5%. His chances were of only average quality, about 8.5%. So Pav, contrary to his joking image, was actually well above average at finishing during his time with Spurs. So there you go. Here's a whole bunch more Spurs or Spurs-adjunct players:

PLAYER	SHOTS	SOT	GOALS	S CONV+	SOT+	G/SOT+	SHOT QUAL
Clint Dempsey	450	154	41	104	107	101	0.087
Gareth Bale	403	158	40	143	125	119	0.070
Jermain Defoe	359	140	43	109	109	105	0.110
Dimitar Berbatov	301	122	49	131	111	121	0.125
Darren Bent	272	118	45	122	113	108	0.136
Peter Crouch	261	101	30	97	110	89	0.119
Rafael van der Vaart	211	80	19	112	121	91	0.080
Adel Taarabt	201	70	7	77	125	64	0.045
Emmanuel Adebayor	201	88	33	108	108	101	0.153
Luka Modric	187	52	9	76	93	87	0.063
Tom Huddlestone	162	34	4	60	77	76	0.041
Mousa Dembélé	138	46	6	68	112	59	0.064
Roman Pavlyuchenko	120	41	15	144	107	153	0.087
Scott Parker	116	32	8	119	94	131	0.058
Aaron Lennon	101	34	13	152	101	159	0.085
Michael Carrick	100	22	6	95	75	125	0.063
Gylfi Sigurdsson	97	36	10	110	114	105	0.094
Younes Kaboul	95	21	5	64	71	73	0.082
Andros Townsend	82	22	3	105	102	106	0.035
Steed Malbranque	75	21			96		0.058
Kyle Walker	73	13	4	117	64	226	0.047
Sandro	73	17	3	89	86	119	0.046
Benoit Assou-Ekotto	64	14	4	154	81	172	0.041
Jermaine Jenas	50	11	3	95	75	129	0.063
Michael Dawson	48	12	4	99	81	125	0.084
Jan Vertonghen	48	14	4	117	97	122	0.071
Robbie Keane	46	23	8	100	117	89	0.174
Paulinho	38	13	1	25	101	23	0.106
William Gallas	36	11	4	65	78	79	0.170
Steven Caulker	35	14	4	90	116	83	0.128
Kyle Naughton	31	9			110		0.035
Roberto Soldado	25	8	1	30	85	36	0.132
Ledley King	25	5	2	78	65	132	0.103

Obviously players from this season we know have been terrible at finishing. With under 50 shots total in the database, we should be very careful about drawing conclusions. Player shooting skill only starts to raise its head above the noise at samples well over 100 shots. But there you go.

End data dump.