It depends on what you mean by "oh crap": Power rankings and season projection, Week 30

That sucked. Not only did Tottenham spit the bit in their easiest game of the next several weeks, but Chelsea and Arsenal won. The numbers remain well removed from terrible for Spurs, mostly because the system still thinks they're a very good club. But another loss or two, and the chances of good outcomes are going to start shrinking fast.

Power Rankings

There's actually a little bit of movement here, which I think is probably unusual after 30 weeks. Liverpool played perhaps even more poorly than Tottenham in a defeat at Southampton, while Arsenal and Chelsea won relatively easily. The pack is bunched up pretty tightly now in the power rankings, though of course Liverpool are now nearly out of real-world top four contention.

• Liverpool ran into Southampton, the Liverpool of the bottom of the table. Southampton have continually failed to get the results their underlying stats project, right up until they soundly beat Liverpool on Saturday. This, plus the entire Swansea club deciding to take a personal day for the Arsenal match, have put Southampton solidly in the front of the trailing pack.

• The stats weren't that impressed with Everton's performance against City. Everton scored two of their three shots on target, converting their only credited "big chance." City managed eight SoT and four BC without a goal. So both clubs remain about where they were in the power rankings before this all began.

• Reading are terrible.

Projected Table

An eventful week, and all in the bad way. But the season is far from over. As I said before the Fulham game, if you told me in August that Spurs would be >50% to make the Champions League at the end of March, I wouldn't have been sad to hear it.

• Spurs' chances at 3rd place dropped equally precipitously, down to 23% from 50%. Second place is still vaguely in play (but also not really) at 2%.
• If you're looking for points goals, the average 3rd place club was on 72 points, and the average 4th place finish came in at 68 points. So that's a 6-0-2 finish for 3rd, 4-2-2 for 4th.
• Once again, Aston Villa improved their chances at survival but their chance of being relegated on goal difference increased. 6% and rising.
• If it were anyone other than Arsenal and Tottenham bouncing madly toward and away from the Champions League places, I'd have more to say. As it is, blerg.
• QPR were on a razor's edge before the weekend, and even with a relatively good overall performance against Aston Villa, they're heading back toward "basically screwed."
• As before, the numbers often do not add up properly, due to rounding. I prefer to publish whole numbers wherever possible, for readability and to avoid giving a false sense of precision. These numbers should not be considered anything more than rough estimates based on rough estimates, with obvious blind spots. But hopefully they're fun.

Reading are terrible.