clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Premier League Projections, Week 9

New, comments

This has to be a quick one, I'm working on a secret project. Shhhh.

Richard Heathcote

We had some movement in the Premier League this weekend. Tottenham Hotspur took a bad tumble being outplayed at home by Newcastile, dropping down into the Everton zone of "hey maybe it isn't our year," West Ham United continued their improbable journey with a convincing victory over Manchester City. Right now I have the gap between Spurs, Everton and the Hammers as basically rounding error. One of them might make a run, but odds are good it won't be more than one of them.

top4

The big match of the weekend was Chelsea's away draw against Manchester United. While a single point at home is not a particularly inspiring result, the Red Devils had by a good margin the better of the chances on the night. Chelsea has been a distinctly less impressive team since Diego Costa went down to injury. They scraped by Crystal Palace and snuck a point off United. Chelsea are still your title favorites by a good margin, but if they want to fully run away with it, they'll need to start dominating the shot chart again.

The big upset was Liverpool's inability to score at home against Hull City. Hull just parked a bus and denied Liverpool chances. This never worked last year, but here Liverpool had the vast majority of possession and could not even create enough chances to add up to a single expected goal.

liverpool-hull

They peppered shots in from distance and played a lot of crosses into whatever heads might be near the goal, but nothing came close to being a clear-cut scoring opportunity. Dropping points ugly, at home, against the club with the worst expected goals ratio in the Premier League? That'll hurt.

Let's go to the numbers.

Premier League Projections

  • Full metholodogy, don't forget to click on "Methodology" for lots of math.
  • EPL Advanced Statistics page, with many of the component stats for these projections.
  • Because of rounding, the numbers may not all add up quite right.

Club W D L Pts GD %Title ΔTitle %Top4 ΔTop4 %5th-6th %Rel ΔRel
Chelsea 24.1 8.6 5.3 81 +42 58% +1 97% -1 2% 0% 0
Manchester City 22.6 8.4 7.0 76 +39 28% -6 93% -4 6% 0% 0
Arsenal 19.1 12.1 6.8 70 +27 7% +4 70% +5 20% 0% 0
Liverpool 18.7 9.2 10.1 65 +18 6% +3 47% -15 31% 0% 0
Southampton 18.6 8.8 10.6 65 +24 3% +2 45% +11 31% 0% 0
Manchester United 15.6 11.7 10.6 59 +12 0% +0 17% +4 28% 0% 0
Tottenham Hotspur 15.6 9.8 12.6 57 +6 0% 0 11% -7 23% 0% 0
West Ham United 15.8 8.4 13.8 56 +5 0% 0 9% +5 21% 0% -1
Everton 14.4 10.8 12.8 54 +5 0% 0 6% -0 17% 1% -0
Newcastle United 13.1 11.4 13.5 51 -4 0% 0 3% +1 9% 2% -3
West Bromwich 11.5 12.4 14.0 47 -4 0% 0 1% -0 4% 6% +1
Stoke City 11.5 10.2 16.3 45 -11 0% 0 0% 0 2% 10% -4
Aston Villa 11.4 9.6 16.1 44 -16 0% 0 0% 0 2% 14% +4
Swansea City 11.2 9.9 16.9 43 -11 0% 0 0% 0 2% 13% -4
Crystal Palace 9.6 11.3 17.1 40 -15 0% 0 0% 0 1% 25% -3
Sunderland 8.8 12.7 16.5 39 -22 0% 0 0% 0 0% 31% +4
Hull City 8.2 12.8 17.0 37 -19 0% 0 0% 0 0% 39% -5
Leicester City 8.7 10.4 19.0 36 -23 0% 0 0% 0 0% 45% +8
Queens Park Rangers 9.4 8.0 19.5 36 -24 0% 0 0% 0 0% 46% +9
Burnley 7.3 10.9 19.8 33 -29 0% 0 0% 0 0% 65% -7
  • Gotta run.