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So I will not have a ton of commentary this week. But I will publish the numbers, so that is something.
The weekend featured several matches where the losing side will surely feel hard done by. The effect of this is that teams that got big victories, like Manchester United's 3-0 win over Liverpool, do not add as much in their projection as would be expected. Likewise Liverpool's attack actually turned in their best match of the season by expected goals and so they gain points in their improved projection over the rest of the season.
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While normally I'd say that game state effects play a bit of havoc here, from watching the game I don't think that's the case. Liverpool created a bunch of big chances and David De Gea put in a couple great saves, plus Raheem Sterling choked several times in front of goal. While De Gea's been huge, anything more than 20 percent better than average is extremely hard to maintain for a keeper. United are not likely to maintain this rate unless they start playing a lot better.
Spurs were United this weekend. Which I can't really complain about, but a great finish by Christian Eriksen and some doubtful shooting from Wilfried Bony, Ki Sung-Young and Jonjo Shelvey saved three points for Spurs.
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So those are some things that happened. And here are the full projections.
Premier League Projections
- Full metholodogy, don't forget to click on "Methodology" for lots of math.
- EPL Advanced Statistics page, with many of the component stats for these projections.
- Because of rounding, the numbers may not all add up quite right.
| Club | W | D | L | Pts | GD | %Title | Δ | %Top4 | Δ | %5-6 | %Rel | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 25.3 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 84 | +45 | 65% | -1 | 100% | +0 | 0% | 0% | 0 |
| Manchester City | 24.1 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 80 | +40 | 34% | +2 | 99% | +0 | 1% | 0% | 0 |
| Arsenal | 20.1 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 70 | +30 | 1% | -1 | 85% | +3 | 12% | 0% | 0 |
| Manchester United | 17.9 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 63 | +15 | 0% | 0 | 46% | +5 | 31% | 0% | 0 |
| Southampton | 17.1 | 8.1 | 12.8 | 59 | +17 | 0% | 0 | 23% | -9 | 34% | 0% | 0 |
| West Ham United | 16.2 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 58 | +7 | 0% | 0 | 15% | +1 | 30% | 0% | 0 |
| Newcastle United | 15.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 56 | +0 | 0% | 0 | 10% | -1 | 23% | 0% | 0 |
| Liverpool | 15.8 | 8.6 | 13.6 | 56 | +4 | 0% | 0 | 9% | +0 | 24% | 0% | 0 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 15.7 | 8.9 | 13.5 | 56 | +1 | 0% | 0 | 9% | +1 | 22% | 0% | 0 |
| Stoke City | 13.5 | 9.9 | 14.5 | 50 | -1 | 0% | 0 | 2% | -0 | 9% | 1% | +0 |
| Everton | 12.3 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 49 | +1 | 0% | 0 | 1% | +0 | 7% | 2% | -0 |
| Swansea City | 12.7 | 10.2 | 15.1 | 48 | -3 | 0% | 0 | 1% | +0 | 5% | 2% | +0 |
| Aston Villa | 11.6 | 10.3 | 16.1 | 45 | -15 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 2% | 7% | +3 |
| Sunderland | 8.2 | 16.5 | 13.3 | 41 | -17 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 19% | +4 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 9.6 | 11.3 | 17.1 | 40 | -14 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 23% | -8 |
| Crystal Palace | 8.8 | 12.5 | 16.7 | 39 | -13 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 28% | +4 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 10.5 | 7.3 | 20.2 | 39 | -22 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 31% | +2 |
| Burnley | 8.2 | 11.3 | 18.4 | 36 | -28 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 50% | -11 |
| Hull City | 6.6 | 13.3 | 18.1 | 33 | -21 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 65% | +1 |
| Leicester City | 7.5 | 9.6 | 20.9 | 32 | -25 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 71% | +4 |
Hull still terrible.