Premier League Projections, Week 25: A New Leader Emerges (Sort of)

There was a whole lot of movement at the top of my projections. Manchester City inexplicably dropped points away to Norwich City and registered only a single shot on target from inside the box. Liverpool had thoroughly trucked Arsenal within fifteen minutes and ended with one of the more convincing wins of the season. With Chelsea managing another perfectly reasonable win, City's big lead in the title race has nearly been erased. With Liverpool not only taking three points but also again adding to their team quality projection, there is basically no room for fifth place Tottenham. Though Tottenham Hotspur pulled out the victory over Everton, it gained them only two percentage points in projection.

If you want more commentary on these matches, check out my hot stat takes column from yesterday.

For another reminder of who the big four are, here's the table of danger zone shot and shot on target difference.

Of course this isn't the whole story. Liverpool have the highest overall shot quality within the danger zone and (relatedly) the league's best big chance difference. Chelsea have a huge shot advantage outside the box, +85 for shots and +42 for SoT, which keeps them solidly in the elite group. Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal are +5, +17, and -20 respectively in shots from outside the box.

Further down, West Bromwich Albion are somewhat flattered by their position in danger zone shot difference, as they are being outshot from elsewhere and highly dependent on crosses for getting shots off from the danger zone. Still, this table still clearly shows why I have West Brom mostly safe from relegation. Newcastle have the largest SoB difference in the league at +103, placing them in the mid-table.

Overall, I think this tells the story pretty well. You can see the top four and the bottom two separated pretty clearly, and you can see Tottenham Hotspur in a mid-table position. Spurs do have good shot and SoT differences from lower-expectation areas, and they're not too dependent on crosses to create shots. So those further stats give them a boost above Crystal Palace at least, but these are still just not the numbers of a Champions League side. Maybe this week will be the week they start playing at that level, but it has not happened yet.

Projections and Power Rankings

Because of rounding, not all the numbers necessarily add up quite right.

• Expected Goals methodology
• Season Simulation methodology

• Chelsea project with on average 0.1 more points than Manchester City, but they are less likely to win the title by several percentage points. This is because there's a pretty good chance the two clubs end up tied, and City are nearly certain to win the tiebreaker. I order the table by projected total points, but we see here how average points isn't always the same as average position. The same is true of Arsenal and Liverpool in the 3rd/4th place slots.
• Wes Brown's red card was horribly damaging for Sunderland, who lost a match home to Hull City that could have secured a pretty safe position for the Black Cats. Instead, with Palace, Norwich and West Ham getting results, Sunderland fall back into the relegation places.
• As noted above, two clubs (Cardiff and Fulham) seem to be separating out from the pack at the bottom. I'm still holding off on saying they're terrible. Both Cardiff City and Fulham might already be there, but I prefer to wait out another few weeks to see if their frantic transfer windows made a difference.

More from Cartilage Free Captain

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• Tuesday Morning Hoddle Of Coffee: Tottenham Hotspur News And Links For February 11, 2014
• A reminder that Lewis Holtby is great
• Hot stat takes: On Manchester United, Chelsea, City and Liverpool
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• Monday Morning Hoddle Of Coffee: Tottenham Hotspur News And Links For February 10, 2014