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Tottenham Hotspur lost to Chelsea this week. Dropped points were expected, but as I discussed in my hot stat takes piece, the extent of Chelsea's win was notable. Spurs' attack produced almost nothing, with the result that the loss hurt a bit more than I'd projected. The gap from Arsenal projected in fourth down to Spurs, Everton and United projected 5th-7th has grown into a chasm.
Win or Go Home
That means Sunday's North London Derby is an effective elimination game. If Spurs win, we return to the fringes of the top four race and Arsenal find themselves in a bit of trouble. If Arsenal can prevail at the Lane, that will put to bed any meaningful chance of Tottenham making a run for the Champions League.
| Outcome | MCofA% | Bookie% | TOT %T4 | ARS %T4 | ARS %Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham W | 34% | 31% | 12% | 81% | 1% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 4% | 90% | 1% |
| Arsenal W | 38% | 39% | 1% | 96% | 3% |
My stats and the bookies agree that Spurs simply don't project as a particularly good team. Arsenal are small favorites even in an away match. But it's not over yet.
Projections and Power Rankings
Because of rounding, not all the numbers necessarily add up quite right.
| Club | W | D | L | Pts | GD | Team+ | Top4% | ΔT4 | Rel% | ΔRel | Title% | ΔTitle | %Eur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 25 | 9 | 4 | 84 | +43 | 150 | 99.9% | +0.5 | 0% | 0 | 52% | +10 | 0% |
| Manchester City | 26 | 5 | 7 | 82 | +56 | 160 | 99.5% | +0.5 | 0% | 0 | 29% | -6 | 0.5% |
| Liverpool | 25 | 6 | 7 | 80 | +47 | 160 | 99% | +1 | 0% | 0 | 17% | -3 | 1% |
| Arsenal | 23 | 7 | 8 | 76 | +29 | 132 | 90% | +2 | 0% | 0 | 2% | -1 | 10% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 20 | 7 | 11 | 67 | +3 | 110 | 5% | -4 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 71% |
| Everton | 18 | 12 | 8 | 66 | +16 | 119 | 5% | -0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 62% |
| Manchester United | 19 | 8 | 11 | 64 | +19 | 123 | 2% | +1 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 50% |
| Newcastle United | 17 | 6 | 15 | 57 | -2 | 100 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 3% |
| Southampton | 15 | 11 | 12 | 56 | +6 | 115 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 2% |
| Aston Villa | 11 | 10 | 17 | 42 | -10 | 85 | 0% | 0 | 1% | -1 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Stoke City | 10 | 12 | 16 | 42 | -16 | 76 | 0% | 0 | 2% | -1 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Hull City | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 | -7 | 86 | 0% | 0 | 2% | -1 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Swansea City | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41 | -6 | 91 | 0% | 0 | 3% | -1 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| West Ham United | 10 | 10 | 18 | 40 | -12 | 67 | 0% | 0 | 6% | -1 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| West Bromwich Albion | 7 | 16 | 15 | 38 | -12 | 91 | 0% | 0 | 15% | +4 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Crystal Palace | 10 | 6 | 22 | 37 | -24 | 76 | 0% | 0 | 25% | +5 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Norwich City | 9 | 10 | 19 | 37 | -28 | 71 | 0% | 0 | 26% | +0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Sunderland | 9 | 9 | 20 | 36 | -24 | 70 | 0% | 0 | 40% | -3 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Cardiff City | 7 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -37 | 54 | 0% | 0 | 86% | -8 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Fulham | 8 | 5 | 25 | 29 | -43 | 61 | 0% | 0 | 93% | +6 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
- Fulham? You're cut. Cardiff? You're cut too.