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Premier League Projections, Week 4

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Everything's coming up Chelsea! Uck.

Jan Kruger

We have a new leader in the projections after just one week. Manchester City played an unimpressive draw with Arsenal as the Citizens are still awaiting just one dominant attacking performance of the sort they managed nearly weekly last season. A massive defensive lapse by the entire Arsenal team allowed a free header off a corner to Martin Dimichelis, and City came away with a point, but it was an uninspiring performance again.

04ars_mci

By contrast, Chelsea move into a clear lead both in the actual table and the projected one with yet another demolishing of a pretty good opponent. Cesc Fàbregas assisted a pair of Diego Costa goals. The Chelsea attack could get bogged down too easily last year, now with Fàbregas absolutely lapping the field in every creative statistic it doesn't seem like they can even be slowed down.

Of course, City and Chelsea meet this weekend. It would be a good time for Manuel Pellegrini's side to put together a performance worthy of their talent, because Chelsea might be headed for a runaway. The good news for Chelsea didn't stop with City's draw. Arsenal dropped points in the same game, and Liverpool were poor in a home loss to Aston Villa. Despite massive advantages in shots and possession, both sides managed about one expected goal apiece, as Liverpool could not break down the Villa defense and were limited to speculative efforts from long range and a bunch of hopeful crosses.

Title_919

But what's good for Chelsea is also, kind of, good for Tottenham. Spurs are not meaningfully competing for the league title. But Arsenal and Liverpool are the Lilywhites' top competition for fourth place. And so despite dropped points at the Stadium of Light, Spurs remain in the same roughly 1-in-4 position for fourth that they were when the weekend started. The match had negative effects on Spurs' projection, as ~2.1 points were expected compared to one achieved, but also positive. Spurs project as a better team going forward based on their efforts in the match.

04sun_tot

Ok, enough of last week. That sucked, even if Spurs kind of didn't. On to projections.

Premier League Projections

  • Full metholodogy, don't forget to click on "Methodology" for lots of math. Maths, even, for there is so much math.
  • Because of rounding, the numbers may not all add up quite right.

Club W D L Pts GD %Title ΔTitle %Top4 ΔTop4 %5th-6th %Rel ΔRel
Chelsea 24.1 7.7 6.2 80 +41 46% +13 95% +3 4% 0% 0
Manchester City 23.3 8.6 6.2 78 +40 35% -5 93% -2 6% 0% 0
Liverpool 21.6 7.7 8.7 73 +31 13% -9 79% -9 16% 0% 0
Arsenal 18.8 11.4 7.8 68 +23 5% +1 57% +3 27% 0% 0
Tottenham Hotspur 17.1 9.9 11.0 61 +13 1% -0 26% +2 33% 0% 0
Manchester United 16.0 11.1 10.9 59 +14 1% 0 19% -1 30% 0% 0
Southampton 15.7 10.5 11.8 58 +11 0% 0 14% +3 27% 0% +0
Everton 14.8 11.2 11.9 56 +5 0% 0 9% +2 23% 1% -1
Aston Villa 13.4 11.0 13.6 51 -4 0% 0 3% +2 11% 3% -5
Newcastle United 12.3 10.8 14.9 48 -8 0% 0 1% -1 6% 7% +1
Stoke City 11.8 10.9 15.3 46 -6 0% 0 1% -1 5% 9% +1
West Bromwich Albion 11.3 11.9 14.7 46 -8 0% 0 1% -1 4% 11% +4
Swansea City 11.7 9.4 16.9 45 -12 0% 0 1% -0 3% 13% +4
West Ham United 10.8 9.8 17.4 42 -14 0% 0 0% 0 2% 20% -2
Sunderland 9.5 12.2 16.3 41 -14 0% 0 0% 0 1% 26% +5
Queens Park Rangers 10.2 10.7 17.0 41 -19 0% 0 0% 0 2% 29% -1
Hull City 8.7 11.1 18.1 37 -21 0% 0 0% 0 0% 43% +6
Leicester City 8.7 10.7 18.5 37 -23 0% 0 0% 0 0% 43% -2
Crystal Palace 8.3 11.8 18.0 37 -19 0% 0 0% 0 0% 46% +5
Burnley 7.7 10.8 19.5 34 -25 0% 0 0% 0 0% 60% +1

  • The bottom of the table remains mostly a mess. With Crystal Palace and Burnley playing a stultifying draw, my numbers now put them at the bottom, but it is hard to say much at this point. Crystal Palace were in an equally bad position early last season and pulled out of it under the direction of Tony Pulis. With so many teams at risk of relegation, it doesn't take that much, whether a change in tactics or a player making the leap or just a random hot streak, to keep a team safe.
  • Speaking  of hot streaks, my numbers continue to be unimpressed with Leicester City. The Foxes created few good chances against Stoke City, and Stoke should definitely have finished off one of theirs. Leicester current goal difference of minus-1 contrasts to an expected goal difference of about minus-4.
  • Southampton? Hey, I said I wasn't too happy with how much my stats love the Saints, and all they did was win 4-0. Let's keep riding that train for another week, see what happens.