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Premier League Projections, Week 14

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These are my statistical projections of the English Premier League

Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

So I used to do this a lot. I realized I can totally still do it. My statistics this year have been impressed with Tottenham from the get-go, even as the club struggled to win close matches. I've discussed elsewhere how Spurs were remade into a top side, and why it's reasonable to believe the club's improvement can be maintained. This doesn't mean anything is certain, but hope is now on the menu for Spurs fans. It's weird. I haven't felt real hope this deep into the season since the first year of AVB. But these guys are good.

Projected EPL Table

Club W D L Pts GD %Title %Top4 5th-6th %Rel
Manchester City 23.9 6.9 7.2 78.6 +42 49% 97% 3% 0%
Arsenal 23.1 7.8 7.1 77.0 +40 36% 95% 5% 0%
Manchester United 20.0 10.4 7.6 70.4 +23 8% 71% 21% 0%
Tottenham Hotspur 18.2 13.2 6.6 67.8 +27 4% 59% 29% 0%
Liverpool 18.1 11.5 8.4 65.8 +17 2% 43% 35% 0%
Leicester City 16.4 11.0 10.6 60.3 +5 0% 15% 32% 0%
Chelsea 16.5 9.0 12.5 58.5 +9 0% 10% 28% 0%
Everton 13.8 12.6 11.6 54.1 +8 0% 4% 14% 0%
Southampton 13.9 11.4 12.7 53.2 +3 0% 3% 12% 0%
West Ham United 13.9 10.4 13.7 52.1 -0 0% 2% 9% 0%
Crystal Palace 14.2 7.4 16.4 49.9 -3 0% 1% 5% 1%
Stoke City 12.3 10.5 15.2 47.5 -9 0% 0% 3% 3%
Watford 12.2 10.7 15.2 47.2 -8 0% 0% 2% 3%
Swansea City 10.6 11.7 15.7 43.5 -10 0% 0% 1% 8%
West Bromwich 11.1 9.7 17.2 42.9 -16 0% 0% 1% 10%
Norwich City 9.5 10.3 18.2 38.9 -18 0% 0% 0% 25%
Newcastle United 7.9 10.2 19.9 33.8 -30 0% 0% 0% 57%
Bournemouth 7.8 10.1 20.0 33.6 -27 0% 0% 0% 57%
Sunderland 8.0 8.8 21.2 32.7 -29 0% 0% 0% 64%
Aston Villa 7.4 8.8 21.8 30.9 -25 0% 0% 0% 71%

  • I am not currently convinced of the terribleness of any EPL team. Even Aston Villa.

Now, Spurs have a big opportunity in the next month. The club has six league matches, and the toughest pair are away matches to Southampton and Everton. Fixtures against bottom table sides like Norwich, West Brom and Newcastle give Spurs a big opportunity to rack up points for the stretch run in the second half. I ran projections to see how likely Spurs are to run the table and how likely we are to finish top four (or just top) based on these performances.

spurs 6 matches

If Spurs can win five of six (15 or 16 points), that would likely put Tottenham in control of the race for fourth place, and even make title contention less of a wacky dream. Four wins (12-14 points) should keep Spurs from dropping out of their current solid position in the race. Of course, it's always possible that all of Tottenham's competitors will be dominant over the break and Spurs would need a huge number to keep pace. But that's not particularly likely. This is a big opportunity for Spurs if the club can seize it.