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So I used to do this a lot. I realized I can totally still do it. My statistics this year have been impressed with Tottenham from the get-go, even as the club struggled to win close matches. I've discussed elsewhere how Spurs were remade into a top side, and why it's reasonable to believe the club's improvement can be maintained. This doesn't mean anything is certain, but hope is now on the menu for Spurs fans. It's weird. I haven't felt real hope this deep into the season since the first year of AVB. But these guys are good.
Projected EPL Table
- For the thought and computation that goes into these projections, see my full expected goals and projection methodology.
- For some of the underlying stats that drive the projections, see the EPL advanced statistics page.
- Due to rounding, some numbers may not sum up exactly right.
| Club | W | D | L | Pts | GD | %Title | %Top4 | 5th-6th | %Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 23.9 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 78.6 | +42 | 49% | 97% | 3% | 0% |
| Arsenal | 23.1 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 77.0 | +40 | 36% | 95% | 5% | 0% |
| Manchester United | 20.0 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 70.4 | +23 | 8% | 71% | 21% | 0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 18.2 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 67.8 | +27 | 4% | 59% | 29% | 0% |
| Liverpool | 18.1 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 65.8 | +17 | 2% | 43% | 35% | 0% |
| Leicester City | 16.4 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 60.3 | +5 | 0% | 15% | 32% | 0% |
| Chelsea | 16.5 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 58.5 | +9 | 0% | 10% | 28% | 0% |
| Everton | 13.8 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 54.1 | +8 | 0% | 4% | 14% | 0% |
| Southampton | 13.9 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 53.2 | +3 | 0% | 3% | 12% | 0% |
| West Ham United | 13.9 | 10.4 | 13.7 | 52.1 | -0 | 0% | 2% | 9% | 0% |
| Crystal Palace | 14.2 | 7.4 | 16.4 | 49.9 | -3 | 0% | 1% | 5% | 1% |
| Stoke City | 12.3 | 10.5 | 15.2 | 47.5 | -9 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
| Watford | 12.2 | 10.7 | 15.2 | 47.2 | -8 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% |
| Swansea City | 10.6 | 11.7 | 15.7 | 43.5 | -10 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 8% |
| West Bromwich | 11.1 | 9.7 | 17.2 | 42.9 | -16 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 10% |
| Norwich City | 9.5 | 10.3 | 18.2 | 38.9 | -18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| Newcastle United | 7.9 | 10.2 | 19.9 | 33.8 | -30 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 57% |
| Bournemouth | 7.8 | 10.1 | 20.0 | 33.6 | -27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 57% |
| Sunderland | 8.0 | 8.8 | 21.2 | 32.7 | -29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 64% |
| Aston Villa | 7.4 | 8.8 | 21.8 | 30.9 | -25 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 71% |
- I am not currently convinced of the terribleness of any EPL team. Even Aston Villa.
Now, Spurs have a big opportunity in the next month. The club has six league matches, and the toughest pair are away matches to Southampton and Everton. Fixtures against bottom table sides like Norwich, West Brom and Newcastle give Spurs a big opportunity to rack up points for the stretch run in the second half. I ran projections to see how likely Spurs are to run the table and how likely we are to finish top four (or just top) based on these performances.
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If Spurs can win five of six (15 or 16 points), that would likely put Tottenham in control of the race for fourth place, and even make title contention less of a wacky dream. Four wins (12-14 points) should keep Spurs from dropping out of their current solid position in the race. Of course, it's always possible that all of Tottenham's competitors will be dominant over the break and Spurs would need a huge number to keep pace. But that's not particularly likely. This is a big opportunity for Spurs if the club can seize it.