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I've got your projections right here. With Tottenham Hotspur heading into the North London Derby off a solid 3-0 win, things are looking up. The stats, right here, still aren't. Tottenham have been winning mostly on the back of hot streaks in finishing and goalkeeping. There's no question that Hugo Lloris is really good, but even David De Gea came back down to earth after his unbeatable run in November. Christian Eriksen and Harry Kane can score goals, but not at rates more than double their expected goals. (Even Lionel Messi only runs about 40 percent above his xG.)
The lucky thing for Spurs is that they haven't been punished yet for their struggles in midfield. Spurs remain only a couple points off the Champions League places. If Mousa Dembele as a forward destroyer plus the return of Nabil Bentaleb can solve Pochettino's midfield problems, Spurs have a real chance.
Still, a win is a win, and Spurs managed to stay in the race while almost everyone else dropped points. The one exception was Southampton, who controlled their match against Swansea for almost all 90 minutes and did not concede a single shot from inside 17 yards. They were beaten by Jonjo Shelvey.
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So Southampton will remain in the hunt even after dropping points. But there are only so many "good" matches you can lose before you fall out of the race entirely. Spurs may not have the numbers or appear subjectively to be playing particularly good football, but points trump everything. They almost certainly need to play better football to stay in the race, but the club's continued excellence in clutch situations is keeping them afloat for now.
Premier League Projections
- Full metholodogy, don't forget to click on "Methodology" for lots of math.
- EPL Advanced Statistics page, with many of the component stats for these projections.
- Because of rounding, the numbers may not all add up quite right.
| Club | W | D | L | Pts | GD | %Title | Δ | %Top4 | Δ | %5-6 | %Rel | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 25.5 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 85 | +49 | 81% | -3 | 100% | -0 | 0% | 0% | 0 |
| Manchester City | 23.1 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 79 | +38 | 17% | +3 | 99% | +0 | 1% | 0% | 0 |
| Arsenal | 20.6 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 71 | +32 | 2% | +1 | 84% | +4 | 14% | 0% | 0 |
| Manchester United | 18.7 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 67 | +22 | 0% | 0 | 51% | +9 | 39% | 0% | 0 |
| Southampton | 19.5 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 66 | +24 | 0% | 0 | 40% | -18 | 45% | 0% | 0 |
| Liverpool | 17.7 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 62 | +11 | 0% | 0 | 15% | +3 | 45% | 0% | 0 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 17.4 | 8.0 | 12.7 | 60 | +4 | 0% | 0 | 9% | +2 | 33% | 0% | 0 |
| West Ham United | 15.1 | 9.8 | 13.2 | 55 | +5 | 0% | 0 | 1% | -2 | 12% | 0% | 0 |
| Stoke City | 14.4 | 9.2 | 14.4 | 52 | -2 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 5% | 0% | 0 |
| Newcastle United | 13.6 | 10.2 | 14.2 | 51 | -5 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 3% | 0% | 0 |
| Swansea City | 13.2 | 10.1 | 14.7 | 50 | -8 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 2% | 0% | -1 |
| Everton | 10.7 | 12.2 | 15.1 | 44 | -6 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 3% | -5 |
| Sunderland | 8.8 | 15.3 | 14.0 | 42 | -15 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 10% | -9 |
| Aston Villa | 9.6 | 11.3 | 17.2 | 40 | -22 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 18% | -0 |
| Crystal Palace | 9.0 | 12.2 | 16.8 | 39 | -15 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 19% | +3 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 9.1 | 11.1 | 17.8 | 38 | -18 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 25% | +4 |
| Burnley | 8.1 | 11.8 | 18.0 | 36 | -24 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 42% | +2 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 9.5 | 7.7 | 20.8 | 36 | -24 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 43% | +1 |
| Leicester City | 8.0 | 8.9 | 21.1 | 33 | -23 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 66% | +3 |
| Hull City | 7.1 | 11.0 | 19.9 | 32 | -23 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 73% | +3 |
- Hull still suck y'all.
Also, I ran projections for Spurs' next three matches. Following just three days after the North London Derby is a matchup with Liverpool, and then after a weekend off Spurs host West Ham. Results here could totally change the story of Tottenham's season.
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The height of the column represents Spurs' projected chances of finishing top four if they take that many points from the next three matches. The percentages under the bar are the projected likelihoods of taking that many points. It's gonna be tough.