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Cartilage Free Captain predicts the 2016-17 Premier League table

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We compiled the data to STATISTICALLY PROVE how hilariously wrong we all are.

Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United - Premier League Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images

Let’s talk about the table. Two days ago I asked the Cartilage Free Captain community for your predictions on how the Premier League table will look by the end of the season. You responded en masse. Thank you!

These kinds of predictions are fun, but also fraught with peril -- who would’ve predicted 2016 Premier League Champions Leicester City this time last year, after all? So we can revisit these predictions at the end of the season and have a good laugh at how wrong we all were.

Let’s start with the Cartilage Free Captain writers.


Cartilage Free Captain Masthead Predictions

Club AVG ST/DEV Highest Lowest Title% Top4% Rel%
Manchester City 1.7 1.437 1 5 71% 86% 0%
Chelsea 2.3 0.994 1 5 14% 93% 0%
Arsenal 3.5 1.225 2 6 0% 79% 0%
Tottenham 3.6 1.399 1 6 14% 79% 0%
Manchester United 4.6 1.277 3 7 0% 50% 0%
Liverpool 5.6 1.216 4 9 0% 14% 0%
West Ham 7.6 1.284 6 11 0% 0% 0%
Southampton 9.3 2.016 7 15 0% 0% 0%
Leicester City 9.6 1.946 6 12 0% 0% 0%
Stoke City 10.1 1.406 8 12 0% 0% 0%
Everton 10.4 2.205 8 14 0% 0% 0%
Crystal Palace 12.8 3.118 9 19 0% 0% 7%
Bournemouth 14.6 2.277 10 18 0% 0% 14%
Middlesbrough 14.6 2.243 12 19 0% 0% 7%
Watford 14.6 3.031 8 18 0% 0% 14%
Sunderland 15.3 2.054 12 19 0% 0% 14%
Swansea City 15.4 3.104 9 19 0% 0% 29%
West Brom 16.6 2.373 11 19 0% 0% 50%
Burnley 17.8 1.251 15 19 0% 0% 64%
Hull City 20.0 0.000 20 20 0% 0% 100%

Contrary to popular opinion, the CFC masthead is comprised of multiple individual people with their own opinions who are not all Kevin McCauley. We don’t all agree and frequently call each other out for bad opinions. That said, we can draw a few conclusions from our composite table rankings.

Manchester City and Chelsea scare the pee out of us.

Last season, both Manchester City and Chelsea limped to underwhelming seasons. This year they seem to both have their mojo back with new managers and more money than God. Of all the writers, only two didn’t pick either City or Chelsea to win the league this year (and they both picked Spurs).

We’re more pessimistic (realistic?) about Spurs than y’all.

Meanwhile, even with two votes for a title in the mix, the masthead still predicted Spurs would come in fourth this season behind City, Chelsea, and Arsenal. That’s in spite of Spurs arguably improving its squad and carrying over the best defense in the league. Don’t hate on us: that’s still one spot higher than we predicted Spurs to finish last year!

We’re not sure what to make of Palace or Swansea.

If you look at the standard deviation in that table, the two clubs we had no idea what to make of were Crystal Palace and Swansea. They had the widest range between highest and lowest in our predictions. Both of these clubs could be decent, or both could utterly suck. We have no idea. (Well, we have SOME idea. We just don’t all agree.)

Hull City are getting relegated.

If there’s one thing we all agreed on, it’s that Hull City are looking out at a disastrous EPL campaign. They still don’t have a manager after Steve Bruce rage-quit last month, they’re down to ten healthy outfield senior players, and they really haven’t purchased anyone to help out. Bad news for former Tottenham stars Tom Huddlestone (injured), Michael Dawson (injured), and Jake Livermore (injured). In short, [EXTREMELY MICHAEL CALEY VOICE] Hull are terrible.


Cartilage Free Community Predictions

We asked for your EPL table predictions, and over 800 of you suckers responded. That’s some good tableizin’. So without further ado, here’s Carty Free Community composite table prediction.

Club Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation Variance
Manchester City 1 19 2.31 2.05 4.21
Tottenham Hotspur 1 20 3.09 2.62 6.86
Manchester United 1 19 3.36 2.22 4.91
Chelsea 1 19 4.1 1.91 3.65
Arsenal 1 20 4.42 2.3 5.28
Liverpool 1 19 5.71 1.91 3.65
Leicester City 1 19 7.96 1.88 3.53
West Ham United 2 20 8.41 3.08 9.47
Everton 1 19 9.34 1.91 3.66
Southampton 3 19 10.46 2.12 4.5
Stoke City 4 20 11.57 2.21 4.9
Crystal Palace 2 20 11.9 2.7 7.28
Bournemouth 1 20 13.71 3.54 12.54
Swansea City 4 20 14.44 2.45 6.02
Watford 4 20 15.64 2.57 6.6
Middlesbrough 2 20 15.89 2.7 7.3
West Bromwich Albion 8 20 16.26 2.4 5.77
Sunderland 8 20 16.34 2.13 4.55
Burnley 1 20 17.12 3.65 13.29
Hull City 2 20 17.96 3.07 9.41

The polling software I use doesn’t have the option to include the fancy “% relegated” and “% promoted” fields I had in the masthead spreadsheet. There’s probably a way to do that from the raw Qualtrics data, but I’m too lazy to figure it out. But what Qualtrics DOES allow me to do is export fun graphics.

Hope springs eternal.

The biggest takeaway from your collected table data is that a lot of you are VERY high on Spurs this year. In fact, of the nearly 900 surveys completed, nearly half of them had Spurs finishing either first or second. The graphic isn’t interactive, but 223 surveys had Spurs finishing first, and 85% of respondents had Spurs qualifying for Champions League next season.

Breakdown of Tottenham Hotspur positional votes

Oh, my sweet, sweet readers. Have you learned nothing?

Manchester City is still scary.

To the shock of no one, Manchester City is expected to the big bad of this year’s Premier League. 44% picked them first in the table. 85% had them in the top four. So we’re in agreement: it’s pants-wetting time when we travel to the Etihad? Cool.

Breakdown of Manchester City positional votes

ArsenLOL.

The average table position for the Gooners was fifth. Fifth place! Out of the Champions League after adding Granit Xhaka! On a club that finished second last year and still has Meszut Özil and Alexis Sanchez! God love all of you, I hope you’re right.

Interestingly, most respondents had Arsenal hanging around the Champions League qualification spots, which surprised me. Buncha Spurs fans, I expected 20th place to have a lot more votes (only 11!).

Breakdown of Arsenal positional votes

No, seriously, Hull City are screwed.

Think this chart pretty much speaks for itself.

Breakdown of Hull City positional votes

LOL.


Reactions? Surprises? Have your say in the comments.