We’re back! Last week, we sort of crushed it. Bryan nailed the Newcastle-Cardiff match, and Joel nailed the fact that United are terrible. Joel bet on Morata to score first, but he scored second, so that one went down the drain, and no Wolves player scored from outside the box.
In the Spurs match, Bryan was done in by Lucas’s stunner to end the first half, and Joel won his short odds bet as Spurs crushed Newcastle after Moose came on to end the match. Still, hitting bets with long odds is good, and Joel is +368 after week two and Bryan is +450. On to Week 3.
Joel: So the thing is, like with Brighton last week, United aren’t good and they hate Jose Mourinho. Spurs are good and have continuity. The match is at Old Trafford, sure, but in the last two matches at Old Trafford Spurs have 1.8 xG and United 2.3 xG. Mourinho managed to magic two wins (1-0, shockingly), but, well, I don’t subscribe to the negativity. Spurs are basically an even match at United, Jose will try to shut down the match, and Spurs are going to win anyway. At 9/5, I’m liking the odds, so hit me $200 on Spurs to win.
Bryan: Let’s not gloss over the fact that I’m winning. I feel like you really tried to breeze past that and I want to take a moment to bask in my temporary glory.
Alright, that done. Now, negativity is kind of my thing and when my negativity combines with narrative, nothing good can happen for Spurs. Tottenham have lost 1-0 at Old Trafford in three straight Premier League seasons. I know things at United aren’t all rosy right now, but Jose seems to always find a way to relieve the pressure and I would not be at all surprised for it to come at Spurs’ expense. United to win is only 6/4, but United to win 1-0 is 8/1. I’m not confident of this pick, but since I have so much fake money—more fake money than Joel might I add—I’ll put $100 on Jose Mourinho to secure his favorite result against Spurs.
Bouncing Around the League:
Joel: Arsenal are in disarray. 0 points from their first two matches. A mess in midfield. But they’re in luck this week, getting their old friend Jack Wilshire and West Ham at the Emirates. Arsenal still have a ton of offensive talent, and I think Aubameyang runs rampant through the Wilshire/Noble midfield. Even odds are available on Arsenal -1.5 goals. I think this one ends like 3-0. $100
Bryan: For some reason the bookies have Southampton at home being slight favorites over Leicester. I suppose it probably has something to do with Jamie Vardy being banned for the next three matches after his horrible tackler against Wolves, but Leicester still have Kelechi Iheanacho and Shinji Okazaki to provide some goal-scoring punch. I just don’t think Soton are very good and I don’t think their manager is very good. It would not be at all a surprise to me to see Leicester get a victory here, even a pretty easy one. Put me down for $100 on Leicester to win at 23/10.
Joel: When rumors started flying that Wilfried Zaha might come to Spurs, the writers’ room broke into corners. I found myself in the firmly pro-Zaha corner. He’s really good! Palace are the 7th best team in the league! Man I wish we had him. Odds are 9/4 on Zaha scoring in this match. Consider this a spite bet: $100 on Zaha to score at all.
Bryan: As much as I’d like to focus on a match that we haven’t touched on, Jack Wilshire’s return to the Emirates is simply too much fun. If West Ham weren’t so dysfunctional, I’d be happy to bet on Wilshire to score against his old team at anytime, which is 10/1. What seems entirely more likely is that Wilshire will be booked in this match, which is 5/2. I really, really want to bet on Jack to be sent off in his return to his boyhood club, which is 33/1, but even only putting $10 on that seems wasteful. So give me $50 on Wilshire to be booked at anytime.
What do you all think?
Cartilage Free Captain does not endorse or promote gambling to any of our readers. We recognize that many people suffer from gambling problems that harm themselves and their families. This series is not intended to encourage people to gamble based on the information we provide. However, oddsmakers provide a valuable framework for thinking about football analysis and the likelihood of outcomes in football matches. Our intention is merely to use this framework to launch a discussion on the upcoming football matches of the weekend.