Welcome back to Come on You Sharps, the feature where Joel and I analyze Spurs and the Premier League under the guise of gambling on it. We’re started off the season with a budget of 10,000 fake dollars and so far, we’re both still in the black. Before the international break, Joel had two of his three bets come in, netting him a tidy $110 profit. Note: The math may be wrong on that.
I, Bryan, meanwhile had only one bet come in, but it was a good win as Arsenal became the first team to allow Cardiff to score this season. My other bets losing though, including my big bet on Spurs, meant that I actually lost money overall this week, to the tune of $15.
Moving onto this week’s preview:
Bryan: I get to go first this week, so here’s my analysis of the Tottenham Hotspur vs. Liverpool match. Liverpool are good and everything about Spurs is awful now. Spurs will be without Dele Alli, Hugo Lloris, and Erik Lamela, while Liverpool seem to have a mostly clean bill of health. I don’t really know how else to analyze this game. I’m sure Joel will have something cool and interesting that involves analytics and xG and something from 538, but man....I do not feel good about this match. So, I guess I’ll put $100 on Liverpool to win to nil at 37/10.
Joel: Boy do I wish I knew if Danny Rose were starting or not. Danny apparently looked great for England and Spurs match up much better with Liverpool if he’s fit on the left. But we do feel really shorthanded for this one. Dele is hurt and he’s been our best player this year. Hugo might have helped save us some certain Liverpool goals. Still, I can’t help but shake the idea that people are underrating home field advantage in this one since, well, it’s at Wembley. Son is back and Lamela, Winks, and Wanyama appear to be healthy. Even without Dele, we seem to have some real subs we can make. $50 on another 2-2 tie and lots of Liverpool salt it is.
Bouncing Around the League
Bryan: As much as I hate to revisit the Watford result from before the international break, we learned that this Watford team has some resilience and some fight back. They certainly appear to be a mentally tough team as well as a phycially tough team. This weak, they take on Manchester United who, as far as I can see are still a bit weak if teams come out and push them. So, while Jose Mourinho always seems to have his team drilled and prepared coming out of an international break, will he have improved the mood and the morale enough to handle a late fightback from the Hornets? I think not. That’s why I’m putting another hundred of my fake dollars on Watford to win from behind at 17/1. $100 her returns a very tidy $1800 including my stake.
Joel: I was going to do the same bet as Bryan. Watford made us look like chumps last match and United, well, United are still bad. But instead I’ll bounce over to Arsenal visiting Newcastle, where two teams with no midfields meet. That might be fun and filled with goals as both teams seem to not exactly know what they’re doing in midfield yet, and their goalkeeping and defending situations seem ripe for the laughs. $80 on over 3.5 goals at 13/8 to win $130.
Bryan: This part is the hardest one, honestly. I don’t think either of us have hit on one of these yet. It really feels like throwing money away. I’m almost to the point where I’m just putting a little bit of money on the thing that seems the least likely to happen and just praying I can laugh all the way to the fictional bank where we’re keeping this fake money. So, while this isn’t the longest of long odds, I will chuck $50 down on Glen Murray to score first against Southampton in a South Coast Derby on Monday. There’s no logic behind that pick, just that Southampton under Mark Hughes are bad and Glen Murray seems to score goals from time to time. The odds aren’t all that bad either, the best I could find are 11/4, which returns $187.50 including stake.
Joel: Bryan is right, prop bets are dumb. I mean most bets are dumb but prop bets are really dumb. Bryan is wrong though cause I won my Zaha spite bet that one time. (Ed. Note: Whatever, I can’t be expected to go back and look, can I?) Anyway, here’s my prop bet. Burnley are bad and still like to bunker their defense. but Sean Dyche’s magic seems to have worn off. Wolves host Burnley this weekend. What I’m saying is, well, it’s that it’s Adama Traore time. Adama Traore is the best dribbler in the world. Better than Messi. Seriously. Now, he’s adding end product to his life, and is going to get to run at Burnley again and again and again. He’s 6/1 to be Man of the Match, and I’ll put $100 to back him to get it.
Cartilage Free Captain does not endorse or promote gambling to any of our readers. We recognize that many people suffer from gambling problems that harm themselves and their families. This series is not intended to encourage people to gamble based on the information we provide. However, oddsmakers provide a valuable framework for thinking about football analysis and the likelihood of outcomes in football matches. Our intention is merely to use this framework to launch a discussion on the upcoming football matches of the weekend.
If you or someone you know needs help with a gambling addiction, CFC recommends reaching out for help to Gambler’s Anonymous (USA) or Be Gamble Aware (UK)