Come on You Sharps Week 6: It Gets Better Right?

Ok, so, things are bleak, huh? Three straight losses, Poche going to Balague to take issue with the summer (he’s not wrong per se), the midfield looks weak, and Harry looks broken still. Wait, what, we play at Brighton this weekend? That should be good right?

Fake gambling went very poorly for Bryan and Joel last week, winning almost none of their bets. The lone exception was Bryan’s prop bet on Glen Murray to score. Totals are to come (Bryan and Joel both have busy day jobs and going through these numbers, well, when Joel has time he’ll sum them up), but, well, soccer is bad and so is gambling.

Spurs Bet - Spurs at Brighton

Joel: So, I’m going to keep it simple this week because, well, last week sucked. I was almost vindicated by the Sonny non-penalty at the end, as I thought we’d get to see Spurs pull out a 2-2 draw resulting in Liverpool tears. Alas. Fortunately this week, we go to Brighton. Brighton have brought in some bright young players in Yves Bissouma and Alireza Jahanbakhsh. As I wrote earlier this year when they played United, it’d have been great if Spurs had just signed them instead of Brighton. Maybe our shaky midfield wouldn’t feel so shaky.

Still, it’s Brighton, Dele should be back, and for 30 minutes midweek you could see Spurs start to put together an attack, especially if we’re not worried about progressing the ball through midfield in the same way we need to against top teams. At a simple 3:4 odds, I’m gonna go with $120 to win $160, because I think Spurs are desperate for a win, are the better side, and will just wear Brighton down.

Bryan: You know what Spurs haven’t done yet this year? Absolutely batter a team. We’ve squeaked by in a lot of games and been edged out in others. So, we’re due for an absolute manhandling now. Plus, there’s nothing better to alleviate the pressure on Pochettino than ramming three or four goals past weaker opposition. Tottenham are 17/2 to win by three goals or more and if there was ever a time to be motivated and ready to score, this would be it. I’ll put 100 of my fake dollars on this match and hope that I get a chance to enjoy the $950 return including my stake.

Bouncing Around the League:

Joel: So we have to talk about how good Liverpool are, right? They’re really good. It’s really annoying y’all. I hate it. Like, their fans are annoying, that they might win the title is annoying, that they are so good at transfers is annoying. They’re also somehow still under-appreciated by gambling markets I think. Their defense, once a real issue for Klopperpool is now amazing. They just seem to have no holes, and even sitting Naby Keita this week against PSG, they still just dominated that match despite needing a last minute winner. Southampton are, well, nothing special and aren’t exactly stout in midfield. I suspect Liverpool are going to run all over them, and so I’m going to bet on Liverpool -2.5 at 38/25. So, $75 to win $114.

Bryan: Speaking of teams we haven’t talked about, Bournemouth are weirdly good. Not like good in an actual good way, but they are scoring goals. Their opponents this weekend, Burnley, are doing pretty much the opposite. Apparently, Sean Dyche has run out of his weird devil magic. Either that or playing in Europe is hard with a squad of just 16 players. I’m sure it’s only one of those and definitely not both.

Anyway, this is supposed to be about Bournemouth. Only City, Liverpool, and Chelsea have scored more goals than the Cherries, but they’ve needed that offensive prowess, because Eddie Howe’s shoddily organized defense has not done them any favors. It’s because of that weak defense that I’m confident in saying that even Burnley will manage to score, particularly given that they are playing at home, but Bournemouth will still manage to win. So, let’s put $150 on both teams to score, but Bournemouth to win at 7/2. That will return a tidy $675 including my stake.

Prop Bet!

Joel: United and Wolves look like the most fun match of the Saturday slate, so let’s go over there to make a pointless bet. It’s annoying, Jose seems to have figured out that United have to play more open than in years past, and to go against his will. I’m afraid they’ve figured out all their problems and Spurs will have a true battle for fourth with United on their hands. Then again, maybe Jose will not be able to change his spots and my belief is wrong, but it has sure looked like it since the Spurs match. So, I’m going to go with a bet that turns into the negative feelings around here: $100 on Alexis Sanchez to score the last goal, a game winner in the 85th (only the first part is the bet). The odds are 5:1. This is going to be so annoying.

Bryan: One of the benefits of playing with fake money is that I can work with a theme and just take some really long odds. It paid off last week when I finally hit one of these damn prop bets (Thanks for converting that penalty, Glen Murray!). That success almost made me play it safe and bet on there being a sending off in the Cardiff vs. Manchester City, which despite seeming like an absolute certainty to me, is getting 9/2 odds. So, I’ll go for something a bit longer. How about Marko Arnautovic to score first in West Ham’s London derby with Chelsea. The Hammers’ striker is 15/2 to be the first man on the scoresheet, so betting $50 on that returns $425 including stake.

Cartilage Free Captain does not endorse or promote gambling to any of our readers. We recognize that many people suffer from gambling problems that harm themselves and their families. This series is not intended to encourage people to gamble based on the information we provide. However, oddsmakers provide a valuable framework for thinking about football analysis and the likelihood of outcomes in football matches. Our intention is merely to use this framework to launch a discussion on the upcoming football matches of the weekend.

If you or someone you know needs help with a gambling addiction, CFC recommends reaching out for help to Gambler’s Anonymous (USA) or Be Gamble Aware (UK)