FanPost

Preparing for Pool: Reasons for Hope? Some Data on LFC's Dropped Points in 2019

Hi friends,

I think I mentioned in a Hoddle from a few days ago that I was interested in examining Pool's negative results from this year just to get a sense of how and why they've struggled and how we might be able to take something from those results, whether it be a tactical something to look for, or a stylistic trend, I hope(d) to start feeling a bit better about our chances in Madrid.

So, full disclosure, I am not a Michael Caley or a brett rainbow. I am not good at posting gifs (with a hard G) and I am not great at reading heat maps and things of that nature. I'm kind of hoping some of you guys might be able to jump in and add some of that knowledge. I don't think I'm a tactical dullard, but being able to talk about it over a pint and being able to write about it are two very different things.

Here we go:

LFC Negative Results 2019

May 1, loss at Barca (4-4-2)
Possession: Pool 53%
Shots Barca 12 (5), Pool 15 (4)
XG: Barca 2.7 - Pool 1.6


Mar 3, scoreless draw at Everton (4-4-1-1)
Possession: Pool 58%
Shots: Everton 7 (3), Pool 10 (3)

Feb 24, scoreless draw at Man United (4-3-1-2)
Possession: Pool 65%
Shots: ManU 6 (3), Pool 7 (1)

Feb 19, scoreless draw with Bayern (4-2-3-1)
Possession: Pool 49%
Shots: BM 9 (0), Pool 15 (2)
XG: BM 0.5 - Pool 2.2

Feb 4, draw at West Ham (4-1-4-1)
Possession: Pool 73%
Shots: WH 13 (2), Pool 11 (6)

Jan 30, draw with Leicester (4-4-1-1)
Possession: Pool 72%
Shots: Leicester 5 (2), Pool 10 (3)
XG: Leic 1.3 - Pool 0.5

Jan 7, loss at Wolves (FA Cup) (3-1-4-2)
Possession: Pool 61%
Shots: Wolves 8 (3), Pool 8 (2)

Jan 3, loss at Man City (4-3-3)
Possession: Pool 50%
Shots: City 9 (4), Pool 7 (5)
XG: City 1.0 - Pool 1.4

Some of the trends in these results are quite obvious to start. For one thing, Pool owned possession in all of these games except for Barca, Everton, and City, IE two fellow big boys and one crosstown rival. The rest of the time, the teams knew coming in they were the inferior side and tried to play on the counter.

Another trend which should make you a bit happy, all of these dropped results were away from Anfield. The European Final will obviously be at neutral ground in Madrid, and though Pool fans are indeed a powerful traveling contingent, it's just not the same as a famous European night when the Kop is rocking, as the commentators pointed out to us probably a million times this year.

I think it's obvious that Pool almost always get their shots off, but if we get a good Hugo game, maybe we can mitigate that? I watched just the scoring highlights from each of these games (I wish I had time to watch them all), and I did notice that Pool seem perhaps most vulnerable to Set Pieces, whether that's direct from a cross, or like a quick free kick routine (successfully pulled off by Kane at Anfield and West Ham). It's never exactly been a strength of ours, but maybe we can put some extra work in on the training ground?

Next, I decided to take a look at both of our matches against LFC this year, and once again, despite the final results, I feel kind of good? Whether it was by design or not, we managed to out possess them in both matches and to put up decent shot numbers as well. They outshot us badly at Wembley, but that was with no Dele to link up play and no Hugo to organize the defense. For this one they will be without Keita and at least a few of their guys are coming off injury. We will have pretty much our full complement of players for maybe the first time all year and if anything the break was more likely to help us since we've looked knackered and Pool have been in a good rhythm.

Our 2 matches:

March 31, Anfield (3-1-4-2) 1st half, switch to (4-4-2 diamond)
Possession: Pool 49%
Shots: Tot 11 (2), Pool 14 (3)
XG: Tot 1.4 - Pool 1.2 (+ OG)
Key absences: Pool - none, Tot - Dier, Winks, Lamela

Goals:
-Firmino free header off Robertson cross, Sanchez fails to mark
-Moura, off quick FK by Kane to Trippier down the right, Eriksen scuffed pass and Moura finishes
-Toby OG, off corner clearance, y'all know.

Sept 15, Wembley (4-1-2-1-2)
Possession: Pool 40%
Shots: Tot 11 (3), Pool 17 (10)
XG: Pool 3.4 - Tot 0.9
Key absences: Pool - none, Tot - Hugo, Dele

Goals:
-Wijnaldum Header off corner scramble
-Firmino, Robertson ball over the top to Mane who crosses in, scramble, Firmino cleans up
-Late Lamela volley off a corner


Final Notes: I'm really sorry I don't have more serious analysis right now, just kind of stray observations and things. But I just wanted to see what the data looks like all together. If this were at Anfield, I'd feel pretty hopeless, but as it stands, in a one off neutral ground playoff, where we just have to nick one, I'd give us above a puncher's chance, 35%? 40%? Who knows. They are better, but not by as much as it seems since so much of their advantage is based on their depth and ability to rotate guys in over the course of the season. In a single game, 11 x 11, we are a lot closer, as was on display at Anfield.

I'm feeling a bit better. I can't wait until Saturday. COYS!

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